SM, YG and JYP financial Reports - 1st quarter 2020

[UMJI MOODS]

 

[Pandaa]

twice did that with no activity for 10 month

 

[Sana Akgae]

I think this the original financial report.

 

[Yeddong]

JYP >>>>>>> the rest of flops.

 

[grandmajudy]

I think this the original financial report.

the numbers for the og report and pinky's don't match

 

[Dragon of the West]

The reason the reports don't match is because the original one considers the company in its entirety while the one posted by OH_mes only considers the Entertainment side of each company.


Interesting to see that YGE's profits are so low even when there were concerts held in Q1. SM's numbers are lower than I expected considering all the comebacks they had early in the year.

Also, big up JYPE for having by far the best profit margins out of the 3. Really shows how selling merch that fans actually wanna buy will be nothing but beneficial to the company.

 

[Whisky23]

JYP's 1Q numbers benefited from Twice merch sales plus part of the JP leg of their Twicelights global tour. Overall, the agency's revenue growth also came from good sales numbers for Stray Kids, Itzy and Got7 for their 1Q comebacks and releases, and one the financial reports also highlighted growing revenues through western streaming platforms such as Spotify and Youtube. I suspect that it's the reason why Twice has been pushing more of their own self-produced content like Too Much Twice and Time to Twice on YT. My initial thoughts were that these shows were partly a consequence of not being able to promote due to the virus, but I think we'll continue seeing more of these self-produced shows in the future.

One thing I've noticed though is that investors don't seem to be as excited about JYPE stocks compared to other agencies, despite having great numbers these past few years.

 

[Sana Akgae]

JYP's 1Q numbers benefited from Twice merch sales plus part of the JP leg of their Twicelights global tour. Overall, the agency's revenue growth also came from good sales numbers for Stray Kids, Itzy and Got7 for their 1Q comebacks and releases, and one the financial reports also highlighted growing revenues through western streaming platforms such as Spotify and Youtube. I suspect that it's the reason why Twice has been pushing more of their own self-produced content like Too Much Twice and Time to Twice on YT. My initial thoughts were that these shows were partly a consequence of not being able to promote due to the virus, but I think we'll continue seeing more of these self-produced shows in the future.

One thing I've noticed though is that investors don't seem to be as excited about JYPE stocks compared to other agencies, despite having great numbers these past few years.

The only reason is JYP does not have a HUGE BG like SM with EXO, NCT and YG with the return of Bigbang.

 

[Sana Akgae]

If somehow Stray Kids becomes HUGE or GOT7 has another breathe of life of being huge, JYP stock price will maintain status quo. Not declining but increasing with small increments. It is different with the case of YGE. the news of G-Dragon discharge from military per se resulted in a HUGE spike in their stock prices. As long as YG has GD/Bigbang, it will stay afloat.

For SM case is different. SME stock price is in the middle of the pack but still higher that JYPE due to sudden "blowing"up of NCT units and there is CHINA same case as YGE with Bigbang and Blackpink.

 

[Sana Akgae]

If only JYP can ACQUIRE or buy the contract of SVT from Pledis, he will have a HUGE BG of his own. A faster way than forming a new BG.

 

[TWICE•MOMO]

JYP's 1Q numbers benefited from Twice merch sales plus part of the JP leg of their Twicelights global tour. Overall, the agency's revenue growth also came from good sales numbers for Stray Kids, Itzy and Got7 for their 1Q comebacks and releases, and one the financial reports also highlighted growing revenues through western streaming platforms such as Spotify and Youtube. I suspect that it's the reason why Twice has been pushing more of their own self-produced content like Too Much Twice and Time to Twice on YT. My initial thoughts were that these shows were partly a consequence of not being able to promote due to the virus, but I think we'll continue seeing more of these self-produced shows in the future.

One thing I've noticed though is that investors don't seem to be as excited about JYPE stocks compared to other agencies, despite having great numbers these past few years.

My take is that's becuase about 85% of all JYPEs earnings are coming from 2 groups, Twice and Got7.
Stray Kids and Itzy arent showing too much promise to become powerhouse touring acts or sell millions of records a year and that must make investor weary as the only 2 acts keepingnJYPE so profitable are their current seniors.

 

[Sana Akgae]

My take is that's becuase about 85% of all JYPEs earnings are coming from 2 groups, Twice and Got7.
Stray Kids and Itzy arent showing too much promise to become powerhouse touring acts or sell millions of records a year and that must make investor weary as the only 2 acts keepingnJYPE so profitable are their current seniors.

YG is banking on Blackpink and Bigbang the most. He also does not have new potential groups like ITZY and Stray Kids with JYP but still their stock price is high compare to SM and JYP.

 

[Whisky23]

If only JYP can ACQUIRE or buy the contract of SVT from Pledis, he will have a HUGE BG of his own. A faster way than forming a new BG.

Well, SVT and N'UEST are pretty much the main revenue generators for Pledis. JYPE will probably have to buy out the whole company to get SVT, but I'm not particularly excited about having HSS joining the board of JYPE.

My take is that's becuase about 85% of all JYPEs earnings are coming from 2 groups, Twice and Got7.
Stray Kids and Itzy arent showing too much promise to become powerhouse touring acts or sell millions of records a year and that must make investor weary as the only 2 acts keeping JYPE so profitable are their current seniors.

True, but you could say the same of YG, with their over-reliance on BB to drive investor sentiments. Revenue-wise, SM and YG are bringing in more than JYPE, though losing out on profitability. Maybe investors are banking on the other revenue streams becoming profitable in the long-term? There's no denying that BGs are revenue powerhouses, but sometimes I do think that investors are overly obsessed with the BG potential and ignoring the bank that Twice was making. Places like Hana Financial have been projecting JYP stock price at around 30K, but the stock still drifts at 20K. Kinda suggests that market sentiments and investor perceptions have quite an influence on JYPE stock price, beyond just the balance sheet fundamentals. But then, JYPE has never been good at mediaplay.

 

[TWICE•MOMO]

YG is banking on Blackpink and Bigbang the most. He also does not have new potential groups like ITZY and Stray Kids with JYP but still their stock price is high compare to SM and JYP.

Well, SVT and N'UEST are pretty much the main revenue generators for Pledis. JYPE will probably have to buy out the whole company to get SVT, but I'm not particularly excited about having HSS joining the board of JYPE.


True, but you could say the same of YG, with their over-reliance on BB to drive investor sentiments. Revenue-wise, SM and YG are bringing in more than JYPE, though losing out on profitability. Maybe investors are banking on the other revenue streams becoming profitable in the long-term? There's no denying that BGs are revenue powerhouses, but sometimes I do think that investors are overly obsessed with the BG potential and ignoring the bank that Twice was making. Places like Hana Financial have been projecting JYP stock price at around 30K, but the stock still drifts at 20K. Kinda suggests that market sentiments and investor perceptions have quite an influence on JYPE stock price, beyond just the balance sheet fundamentals. But then, JYPE has never been good at mediaplay.

Yeah having a big potential BG is gonna always be worth more to investors as GG's have this image of being much more limited in actual earning years-even if newer groups like Twice are challenging that image and are far far more successful and stable than most BG's.

I think with YG BP is only a small player for most years-in 2019 even tho it was a big year for them I don't think they were YGe's primary source of revenue? All we need to do is look a few years back when BP weren't really active or making any money for YG in say 2017-their stock peak in around May of that year was 5 points higher than current-2018 being arguably their most hype/growth year YGs stocks were just as unstable as 2020 even with the pandemic. YGe just for w/e reason dont seem as reliant on idols doing well compare to JYPE. For w/e reason they don't really move the needle. Whereas being how JYPE is solely reliant on their idols-of which the vast majority of earnings is based purely on Twice/Got7 if we're honest.

I mean they way I take it is if YG lost BP-they would bounce back fairly quickly, maybe in a year. SM don't rely on idols at all anymore and they have a new girl group around the corner and NCT have finally started taking off anyway so investors have that confidence even if they did rely on them...

But for if any reason JYPE didn't have Twice be it due to them fading away, having a huge scandal, not resigning, etc the company would take such an enormous hit-it's not an exaggeration to say without Twice in the last 2 years JYPE likely wouldn't have posted profit. That combined with somewhat poor market relations with Japan and how focused his company has been toward them in the last 3-4 years could also be a factor.
I mean what happen(even tho unlikely) if a THAAD style 'soft ban' happens on Kpop? It would pretty much devastate the companies bottom line.

With how fickle the idol industry is my thought is most aren't willing to gamble on essentially a 1 or 2 horse stable. I think at their price peak in 2018-19 Twice had just sold 2.5m and booked a huge Dome tour and investor I think somewhat expected JYPE other groups to follow than trend but Got7 tour was a mixed bag with some peaks and some valleys and their album sales really aren't much for a senior BG...combine that with Stray Kids stagnating somewhat and Itzy probably under-performing compared to what investor had anticipated I'm not surprised the price has stagnated around the 19-22 mark for months now.

 

[Icy]

NCT might've done really well but they shot different videos for pretty much every song they released and they did a lot of other types of videos, i suppose that had to eat away some of the profit.

 

[Cosmic Friend]

Yeah having a big potential BG is gonna always be worth more to investors as GG's have this image of being much more limited in actual earning years-even if newer groups like Twice are challenging that image and are far far more successful and stable than most BG's.

I think with YG BP is only a small player for most years-in 2019 even tho it was a big year for them I don't think they were YGe's primary source of revenue? All we need to do is look a few years back when BP weren't really active or making any money for YG in say 2017-their stock peak in around May of that year was 5 points higher than current-2018 being arguably their most hype/growth year YGs stocks were just as unstable as 2020 even with the pandemic. YGe just for w/e reason dont seem as reliant on idols doing well compare to JYPE. For w/e reason they don't really move the needle. Whereas being how JYPE is solely reliant on their idols-of which the vast majority of earnings is based purely on Twice/Got7 if we're honest.

I mean they way I take it is if YG lost BP-they would bounce back fairly quickly, maybe in a year. SM don't rely on idols at all anymore and they have a new girl group around the corner and NCT have finally started taking off anyway so investors have that confidence even if they did rely on them...

But for if any reason JYPE didn't have Twice be it due to them fading away, having a huge scandal, not resigning, etc the company would take such an enormous hit-it's not an exaggeration to say without Twice in the last 2 years JYPE likely wouldn't have posted profit. That combined with somewhat poor market relations with Japan and how focused his company has been toward them in the last 3-4 years could also be a factor.
I mean what happen(even tho unlikely) if a THAAD style 'soft ban' happens on Kpop? It would pretty much devastate the companies bottom line.

With how fickle the idol industry is my thought is most aren't willing to gamble on essentially a 1 or 2 horse stable. I think at their price peak in 2018-19 Twice had just sold 2.5m and booked a huge Dome tour and investor I think somewhat expected JYPE other groups to follow than trend but Got7 tour was a mixed bag with some peaks and some valleys and their album sales really aren't much for a senior BG...combine that with Stray Kids stagnating somewhat and Itzy probably under-performing compared to what investor had anticipated I'm not surprised the price has stagnated around the 19-22 mark for months now.

According to your hypothesis, why might Itzy be underperforming? Maybe because there aren't enough members? Or the personalities don't pop enough for people? Not enough international members to cater to the market?

Do you think JYP's Chinese and Japanese groups (Boystory and Nizi) might change things for them?

And do you think any of the companies might try American groups? I think I remember SM saying that they'll try to put together an American gg eventually. Will that work?

I'm really curious to see where Kpop is heading because imo the third generation (and some lingering 2nd gen groups that haven't collapsed due to military or scandal) is really carrying things into the foreseeable future. 4th generation groups are having a rough spot stealing the attention.

 

[grandmajudy]

Comparing stock prices isn't relevant without taking a look at the number of outstanding shares. JYPE's market cap is already higher than the other two and I've always been curious even why investors would be that positive to push them to that level. They seem to be an efficiently run company but their revenue stream is very narrow. They even seem to be cutting down on their businesses, getting rid of their acting division and also most of their solo music artists. They're basically idol group specialists which fortunately they've been good at with at least GGs.

Market Cap (200516):
YGE: ₩533B
SME: ₩610B
JYPE: ₩705B

 

[TWICE•MOMO]

According to your hypothesis, why might Itzy be underperforming? Maybe because there aren't enough members? Or the personalities don't pop enough for people? Not enough international members to cater to the market?

Do you think JYP's Chinese and Japanese groups (Boystory and Nizi) might change things for them?

And do you think any of the companies might try American groups? I think I remember SM saying that they'll try to put together an American gg eventually. Will that work?

I'm really curious to see where Kpop is heading because imo the third generation (and some lingering 2nd gen groups that haven't collapsed due to military or scandal) is really carrying things into the foreseeable future. 4th generation groups are having a rough spot stealing the attention.

Well, the reason is simple. ITZY were the first and only 'big 3' GG to debut in the sort of post Kpop boom of 2017-18. I think market expectations were fairly high. Investors were seeing another JYPE group selling 350k at the time and booking massive tours. BP were also showing a similar strength and IzOne had just had a very successful Korean and Japan comeback selling around 500k between the two.

I think investors had hoped ITZY might come out to a lot of hype and be potentially close to Twice level in the next 2 years-but that's become quite obvious as something that isn't likely to happen. I also think their were expectations for Stray Kids to blow up-which again didn't happen.

I mean if you remember when the financial reports started to suggest JYPE was debuting a GG in 2019-that was around late 2018, the same time they confirmed the huge tour for Twice-this put the company in a great position and the stocks hit an all time high-close to 40. The price stabilized around Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan in the low to mid 30's which was amazing for JYPE. But following February/March we started to see an almost unstoppable slip.

But it's also a few other things. The Japan/Korea breakdown, US challenging trade with the East, etc and if we remember JYPE had started to recover. In January before the virus hit JYPE stock price had risen close to 30 and had been on a steady rise since August of 2019...so it's mostly factors out of the companies hands too.

 

[Yeddong]

The only reason is JYP does not have a HUGE BG like SM with EXO, NCT and YG with the return of Bigbang.

In 2021 they will have 2PM returning after 5 years, surely people are expecting a lot of JYP in the next year.

 

[Some]

So who won ?