Who can stop China's CCP?

[GuardianofTheCosmicRealm]

Who can resist China?

 

[Jennie X Rosé]

I think you should delete this option "ISIS and islamist groups", it's inappropriate imo

 

[GuardianofTheCosmicRealm]

I think you should delete this option "ISIS and islamist groups", it's inappropriate imo

Why? What the communist are doing with the Uyghur people will definately trigger those groups to attack China.

 

[Jennie X Rosé]

Why? What the communist are doing with the Uyghur people will definately trigger those groups to attack China.

I don't know the full story but I felt this might hurt Muslim users by linking ISIS to them

 

[GuardianofTheCosmicRealm]

I don't know the full story but I felt this might hurt Muslim users by linking ISIS to them

I've never linked muslims to ISIS and everybody knows ISIS doesn't represent muslims. That's why had them as a choice, because they will be future foes of communist China.

 

[Pyron]

You need to understand the threats to the stability for the CPC, so you can understand and predict with some certainty its behavior in general terms.

The biggest threat is controlling the vast population numbers and different people groups inside it. Even if you bunch the majority of Han Chinese as just one group, they aren't really just one people group if you look more carefully. Censorship and building a strong sense of nationalism are basic tools to achieve this and it's no different anywhere. The way they act toward Uyghur, Tibet, Taiwan, and Southeast Sea reflects this as well.

If they wanna stay this big and control this many groups in a centralized manner, the way they are doing it is probably rational and shooting for the long term. Unfortunately the citizens are the ones who suffer from it.

With all this being said, the only way CPC steps down is if the centralized approach becomes unsustainable. I think CPC is very much aware of that considering the vast history of China provides a lot of examples to learn from. Also, the fall of Soviet Union is a great example for the CPC. They are doing everything they can do to maintain this and even double down on centralization efforts by increasing propaganda efforts, cyber attacks, nationalism, eliminating opposition inside CPC, and so on.

So the only realistically way would be massive disruption of central power and this would lead to a big civil unrest and quite frankly no one wants this. CPC, most citizens, every neighboring country, the West, everyone wouldn't want to see a sudden fall of CPC at this point of the game. The power vacuum it would create would cause a bigger chaos than having it in power.

It will be "interesting" to see when the Taiwan and Southeast Sea questions come up soon. The centenary anniversary of CPC is coming and their fleet is kinda coming together, so they can challenge the regional dominance of the US in the area and this could spark a regional war or even WW3.

USA can play the trade war and maybe it can force China to change its stances, but it has to be a global effort and I don't think there is any good coordination for an effective trade war. The best would be a slow decentralization of China or at very least decentralization inside CPC and in the end Chinese population is the biggest threat for the CPC. That's why assimilation efforts are the ugly tool they use.

As for Uyghur people, I don't think Islamism would work for them. I think a nationalist movement would be far more effective and even this is dubious. There are other Muslims in China (Muslim Hans are a thing) and they don't suffer persecution. Religious motivated groups would not be effective. An ISIS style terrorism wouldn't make any sense there as the point of these movements would be to create a Caliphate and I don't think most Uyghur are motivated for that and even if ISIS style groups wanted to go there, I don't think they would have resources to waste there to fund similar movements like they can fund in Middle East and Africa. Uyghur or maybe a more generic Turkic nationalism would be more tangible. However, it seems as tangible as a Tibetan movement.

 

[GuardianofTheCosmicRealm]

You need to understand the threats to the stability for the CPC, so you can understand and predict with some certainty its behavior in general terms.

The biggest threat is controlling the vast population numbers and different people groups inside it. Even if you bunch the majority of Han Chinese as just one group, they aren't really just one people group if you look more carefully. Censorship and building a strong sense of nationalism are basic tools to achieve this and it's no different anywhere. The way they act toward Uyghur, Tibet, Taiwan, and Southeast Sea reflects this as well.

If they wanna stay this big and control this many groups in a centralized manner, the way they are doing it is probably rational and shooting for the long term. Unfortunately the citizens are the ones who suffer from it.

With all this being said, the only way CPC steps down is if the centralized approach becomes unsustainable. I think CPC is very much aware of that considering the vast history of China provides a lot of examples to learn from. Also, the fall of Soviet Union is a great example for the CPC. They are doing everything they can do to maintain this and even double down on centralization efforts by increasing propaganda efforts, cyber attacks, nationalism, eliminating opposition inside CPC, and so on.

So the only realistically way would be massive disruption of central power and this would lead to a big civil unrest and quite frankly no one wants this. CPC, most citizens, every neighboring country, the West, everyone wouldn't want to see a sudden fall of CPC at this point of the game. The power vacuum it would create would cause a bigger chaos than having it in power.

It will be "interesting" to see when the Taiwan and Southeast Sea questions come up soon. The centenary anniversary of CPC is coming and their fleet is kinda coming together, so they can challenge the regional dominance of the US in the area and this could spark a regional war or even WW3.

USA can play the trade war and maybe it can force China to change its stances, but it has to be a global effort and I don't think there is any good coordination for an effective trade war. The best would be a slow decentralization of China or at very least decentralization inside CPC and in the end Chinese population is the biggest threat for the CPC. That's why assimilation efforts are the ugly tool they use.

As for Uyghur people, I don't think Islamism would work for them. I think a nationalist movement would be far more effective and even this is dubious. There are other Muslims in China (Muslim Hans are a thing) and they don't suffer persecution. Religious motivated groups would not be effective. An ISIS style terrorism wouldn't make any sense there as the point of these movements would be to create a Caliphate and I don't think most Uyghur are motivated for that and even if ISIS style groups wanted to go there, I don't think they would have resources to waste there to fund similar movements like they can fund in Middle East and Africa. Uyghur or maybe a more generic Turkic nationalism would be more tangible. However, it seems as tangible as a Tibetan movement.

What about this group? Could they pose any threat to China's expansion?
http://thebalochistanpost.net/2019/...-president-in-a-newly-released-video-message/

 

[Pyron]

What about this group? Could they pose any threat to China's expansion?
http://thebalochistanpost.net/2019/...-president-in-a-newly-released-video-message/

Not really. If they pose any threat, it would signalize some internal weakness and over-extension of CPC centralized control than they having any real strength to oppose it. Realistically speaking, Pakistan could just deal with them as having them threat Chinese personal there is a direct threat to their economic objectives and China is a valuable ally versus India. The best they could do is maybe delay Chinese plans in expanding influence in the Indian Ocean. This group seems to be fighting multiple fronts and adding CPC to their list of enemies doesn't see wise.

Any external threat would need to be very coordinated. I think a global effort to the US-China trade war (which isn't possible with current approach) plus various groups threatening external Chinese interests could make CPC looks weak and create internal instability.

In the end CPC is its own biggest threat. They have to balance internal opposition and manage population satisfaction and it's a delicate balance.

I'm more interested in how China will deal with the South China Sea situation and Taiwan. I think their slow but steady intrusion in that region will eventually trigger a response by every country in that area. Also, their One China stance toward Taiwan would make SK and Japan very nervous as Taiwan is an important buffer zone to their maritime routes. Both situations will be in directly confrontation of US interest in the region.

So going back to the Baluchistan question, if they manage to delay or even stop Chinese expansions in the Indian Ocean and China doesn't have other options there for its Silk Road initiative, it could force CPC to aggressively pursuit objectives in South China Sea/Taiwan. From there CPC could overextend and create a domino effect. Of course, this would be a bloody mess and extreme damaging to international trade. As long this is a bigger threat to CPC, I don't think they would be irrationally aggressive. If Baluchistan terrorism poses any threat, they can just force local powers like Iran and Pakistan to deal with them as it is in their own interest to do so anyway.