hotsushi-kun
NuguSo, as you may heard, i heard that Japan demographic has been declining, the number of younger people are getting less married, few babies are born and the proporition of the eldey population are rising and Japan gov refuses to take migrants in. How come this demographic trend will affect the Japanese music industry as a whole, i know Japan won't be the second largest music market in the world, it will belong to someone else. And you?
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The japanese music market is ruled by old men tho lmao
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If the trend continues, yes
hotsushi-kun
NuguI know the older generations still keep control their business and position and on what J-Pop should be marketed, if these demographic decline contiunes, what will happen. I know the population decline in making Japan's music market suffer stagnation though.
hotsushi-kun
NuguWe will not see any good J-Pop idol groups (both girl and boy group) since Japan will be a lot of vaccine and lot of companies in Japan will go into bankrupt due to not having enough young worker to fill the gaps. If only immigration was the only problam to solve these issues, Japan could have been great and their economy could have been good and stayed as the third largest economy in the world, after China #2 and US #1.
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it's not that they keep control on it is that most Japanese idols fans are actually people in their 30s or 40s therefore the demographic decline won't affect it.
hotsushi-kun
NuguBut there won't be too much people in their 20s, 30s nor 40s fans of idol group to support their love, so Japan should rather stop acting xenophobic to the all the countries and start accepting migrants, that's the only way to keep Japan and its idol group more alive and supportive.
Look at this stats:
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maybe they should keep their porn production lower so that people actually go out and have sexBut there won't be too much people in their 20s, 30s nor 40s fans of idol group to support their love, so Japan should rather stop acting xenophobic to the all the countries and start accepting migrants, that's the only way to keep Japan and its idol group more alive and supportive.
Look at this stats:
hotsushi-kun
NuguNah, i don't think so.
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That's not really it.
Their low birth rate has much more to do with conditions at work and culture than anything else. Like in many other developed nations, people are having fewer kids, at a higher age and focusing on their careers.
Japanese women actually have MORE kids, on average, than women in: South Korea, Taiwan, Portugal, Greece, Spain, Hong Kong and Italy (source).
Now the reason Japan has the fastest population decline has to do with the average age of their population (only Germany's and Monaco's are higher) coupled with their low immigration numbers.
hotsushi-kun
NuguYes, that's what i was thinking. Many countries have been compensated by importing a number of foreigners and Japan is no exepction. I know immigration could Japan's demographic and its economy as well. But why Japan refuses to take migrants in is no far.
the issue is more complex than just that imo, japan is a county made by old people but like many other western countries in europe, because it what happen in wealthy countries
i think might be relevant in the music market because company are less open to new "system" like streaming, i mean they still sell audio cassette especially for enka artists lol but that just mean there is a lot of ppl that are not tech-savvy and doesn't surprise me, if u know how bureaucracy works over there (but again, is a issue that many countries have)
but also, they have many streaming sites and many online shops, selling physicals, which IMO is better and gives more revenue to the artists than streaming on loop stuff on youtube or spotify
having a domestic market that rely on on physical slow down the growth? yes, definitely.
to me japanese music is still strong, sure it doesn't feel like 90's or 00's when there were huge names that were doing big sales but also be historical relevant for the market, but i think there are many different realities that push in different ways.
many indies artists, many small idol groups and solos, seiyuu's and everything related to anisong is pretty strong especially now that also mobages are involved in the picture (ex. idolm@ster and such)
obviously if u focus on mainstream things looks slightly grim because there are no big names like i said earlier, but i feel this kind of discourse is done because the fear of kpop, which imo is silly
and no, immigrants won't fix the issue. because even if they do more children they will be not treated as japanese (and i think many know why im saying that) it would be hard for one of them aim to enter in whatever industry in a relevant position and change things.
and if we talk about "immigrants will make more children and they will buy music" is idk very questionable because not everyone has that interested and u can't rely on imaginaries babies that buy music to increase the market sales
japanese market music has to open up in ALL the senses, if they want to not let it stagnate
i think might be relevant in the music market because company are less open to new "system" like streaming, i mean they still sell audio cassette especially for enka artists lol but that just mean there is a lot of ppl that are not tech-savvy and doesn't surprise me, if u know how bureaucracy works over there (but again, is a issue that many countries have)
but also, they have many streaming sites and many online shops, selling physicals, which IMO is better and gives more revenue to the artists than streaming on loop stuff on youtube or spotify
having a domestic market that rely on on physical slow down the growth? yes, definitely.
to me japanese music is still strong, sure it doesn't feel like 90's or 00's when there were huge names that were doing big sales but also be historical relevant for the market, but i think there are many different realities that push in different ways.
many indies artists, many small idol groups and solos, seiyuu's and everything related to anisong is pretty strong especially now that also mobages are involved in the picture (ex. idolm@ster and such)
obviously if u focus on mainstream things looks slightly grim because there are no big names like i said earlier, but i feel this kind of discourse is done because the fear of kpop, which imo is silly
and no, immigrants won't fix the issue. because even if they do more children they will be not treated as japanese (and i think many know why im saying that) it would be hard for one of them aim to enter in whatever industry in a relevant position and change things.
and if we talk about "immigrants will make more children and they will buy music" is idk very questionable because not everyone has that interested and u can't rely on imaginaries babies that buy music to increase the market sales
japanese market music has to open up in ALL the senses, if they want to not let it stagnate
hotsushi-kun
Nugu
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its because japan aint making no baby making music mess
why u even open a thread to talk about a topic then?
hotsushi-kun
NuguTo further wrote about the current state of J-Pop and Japanese music industry and its future years.
Japan has been slowly opening up to migrants. It is still hard to move there but they are very aware of the problem and trying to fix it even if not at a fast pace.
If nothing changes the answer to your question is yes. But that will only start making a difference in maybe 20 years, not in 5. Even 20 is a very short time for you to start seeing the effects on population caused by birth rate issues.
Also worth remembering that literally every country that is top 10 in music industry by revenue is on a sub-replacement fertility rate like Japan. Korea has an even lower fertility rate than Japan. So if your reason to opening this is to argue Japan is going to lose their second place at the music industry because of their population replacement levels you are ignoring a huge counter-argument by not looking into other countries' rates.
You are imo over-simplifying a very complex issue too by stating that immigration would fix the population problem. The reason people nowadays have less kids all over the world in the top economies is all related to how much more expensive cost of living is combined with how much you have to work to make money. People have less time and will to make families because all they do is work and they don't want to spend the little money they make paying to take care of children. That is a very common trend throughout the entire planet for developed countries. People moving to Japan from other countries are not guaranteed to maintain their original country's fertility rate. This would be just a temporary influx of new people that more likely than not would just also not have as many children because Japan is expensive to live in.
Not to mention the countless of problems you run into by just adding a lot of people to a country when they have no knowledge about the culture and language. Absorbing all those people is not simple nor easy. You have to take into account several factors so that they don't just become more trouble than they are worth.
If you are worried about J-pop as a whole my advice is don't be. When this actually ends up affecting the genre you will probably not even like J-pop anymore since it will be 20+ years from now. Not to mention the genre and the market will change naturally even without the population issue as we've already seen from how J-pop has changed even from the 2000's to today.
If nothing changes the answer to your question is yes. But that will only start making a difference in maybe 20 years, not in 5. Even 20 is a very short time for you to start seeing the effects on population caused by birth rate issues.
Also worth remembering that literally every country that is top 10 in music industry by revenue is on a sub-replacement fertility rate like Japan. Korea has an even lower fertility rate than Japan. So if your reason to opening this is to argue Japan is going to lose their second place at the music industry because of their population replacement levels you are ignoring a huge counter-argument by not looking into other countries' rates.
You are imo over-simplifying a very complex issue too by stating that immigration would fix the population problem. The reason people nowadays have less kids all over the world in the top economies is all related to how much more expensive cost of living is combined with how much you have to work to make money. People have less time and will to make families because all they do is work and they don't want to spend the little money they make paying to take care of children. That is a very common trend throughout the entire planet for developed countries. People moving to Japan from other countries are not guaranteed to maintain their original country's fertility rate. This would be just a temporary influx of new people that more likely than not would just also not have as many children because Japan is expensive to live in.
Not to mention the countless of problems you run into by just adding a lot of people to a country when they have no knowledge about the culture and language. Absorbing all those people is not simple nor easy. You have to take into account several factors so that they don't just become more trouble than they are worth.
If you are worried about J-pop as a whole my advice is don't be. When this actually ends up affecting the genre you will probably not even like J-pop anymore since it will be 20+ years from now. Not to mention the genre and the market will change naturally even without the population issue as we've already seen from how J-pop has changed even from the 2000's to today.
hotsushi-kun
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Demographic crisis in these countries do affect everything in general, but specific industries have specific problems. Instead of being a cause, low birthrates may just make the actual issues look worse instead of being a direct or indirect cause.
I heard this being used as one of the reasons to explain the decline of anime industry during the late 2000s and early 2010s (their graphs were basically flat or a big dip down), but again the problem inside anime industry were unique enough inside them to be simply explained by birthrate decline. The demographic issue may have exacerbated it, but it was far from being one of the causes. These industries started to readjust around 2012 and improved a lot as they open up their market more. After 2014 it paid off and it has been a steady growth and things are looking up as anime is more global than ever been.
My impression is Japanese music industry is too closed. Dunno how their economic graphs look like to make a better analysis, but I guess their growth is too dependent on just one market. It doesn't matter if Japanese market is the second largest. It's a limit and it makes the industry more vulnerable to negative changes inside this closed market. However, it may be a case that they have a harder time to spread outside Japan, so that's why they react this way to market pressures.
One immediate market they could tap is Southeast Asia. Anime is pretty big there from what I gather. I don't think there is any reason to not tap it more. I see some action in that direction, but maybe they should push more. Other markets like Latin America looks like attractive options, but it's probably duo to their already large immigrant population (like Brazil has a really big Japanese community they already tap). Dunno much Australia, but it seems like a nonbrainer place to expand to.
Ideally SK should also be a market, but sadly relationships aren't good even thou geopolitically both countries should be buddies buddies like France/Germany are now. Instead they have a rivalry and animosity duo to their complicated past that will not benefit them in the long run geopolitically speaking.
China is another nice market, but again big yikes. Still it's not like they hate all things Japanese. Anime is big enough there and you see lot of collaborations between both nations. It was all the rage a couple of years ago. Maybe music should somehow crack these markets the same way as anime did. Dunno what makes anime different, but I guess it less viewed as a soft-power cultural tool than music.
Dunno, it's a complex problem hard to pinpoint or simplify it for just a forum post.
I heard this being used as one of the reasons to explain the decline of anime industry during the late 2000s and early 2010s (their graphs were basically flat or a big dip down), but again the problem inside anime industry were unique enough inside them to be simply explained by birthrate decline. The demographic issue may have exacerbated it, but it was far from being one of the causes. These industries started to readjust around 2012 and improved a lot as they open up their market more. After 2014 it paid off and it has been a steady growth and things are looking up as anime is more global than ever been.
My impression is Japanese music industry is too closed. Dunno how their economic graphs look like to make a better analysis, but I guess their growth is too dependent on just one market. It doesn't matter if Japanese market is the second largest. It's a limit and it makes the industry more vulnerable to negative changes inside this closed market. However, it may be a case that they have a harder time to spread outside Japan, so that's why they react this way to market pressures.
One immediate market they could tap is Southeast Asia. Anime is pretty big there from what I gather. I don't think there is any reason to not tap it more. I see some action in that direction, but maybe they should push more. Other markets like Latin America looks like attractive options, but it's probably duo to their already large immigrant population (like Brazil has a really big Japanese community they already tap). Dunno much Australia, but it seems like a nonbrainer place to expand to.
Ideally SK should also be a market, but sadly relationships aren't good even thou geopolitically both countries should be buddies buddies like France/Germany are now. Instead they have a rivalry and animosity duo to their complicated past that will not benefit them in the long run geopolitically speaking.
China is another nice market, but again big yikes. Still it's not like they hate all things Japanese. Anime is big enough there and you see lot of collaborations between both nations. It was all the rage a couple of years ago. Maybe music should somehow crack these markets the same way as anime did. Dunno what makes anime different, but I guess it less viewed as a soft-power cultural tool than music.
Dunno, it's a complex problem hard to pinpoint or simplify it for just a forum post.
hotsushi-kun
Nugu@Pyron
I did heard China and India have the largest population there, so they should concentrate and market their anime and other Japanese media there.
China doesn't even have its own convention for its Japan's pop cultural there, but India has a small convention for Japanese cultural there. I also heard about Soft Power Survey by Monocle 2018/19 is ranked as #3 place and that Japan has been trying to bring more tourists to Japan for the 2020 Summer Olympics and the government has said that they wanted to double the tourism through 40 million, its gonna be really good but i'm not sure they'll manage to target this sort of goal?
Read more about it in Soft Power Survey produced by Monocle:
The 2020 Summer Olympics held in Tokyo could also showcase some famous J-Pop acts performing at the opening and closing ceremony, that's what am i thinking. But also, Japan will lose its #1 place as being in Tokyo as big megacities due to the declining population in Tokyo there. Japan should really decided to start and accept more migrants, even a lot of experts from UN have urged government there.
I did heard China and India have the largest population there, so they should concentrate and market their anime and other Japanese media there.
China doesn't even have its own convention for its Japan's pop cultural there, but India has a small convention for Japanese cultural there. I also heard about Soft Power Survey by Monocle 2018/19 is ranked as #3 place and that Japan has been trying to bring more tourists to Japan for the 2020 Summer Olympics and the government has said that they wanted to double the tourism through 40 million, its gonna be really good but i'm not sure they'll manage to target this sort of goal?
Read more about it in Soft Power Survey produced by Monocle:
The 2020 Summer Olympics held in Tokyo could also showcase some famous J-Pop acts performing at the opening and closing ceremony, that's what am i thinking. But also, Japan will lose its #1 place as being in Tokyo as big megacities due to the declining population in Tokyo there. Japan should really decided to start and accept more migrants, even a lot of experts from UN have urged government there.