NewUser
StanYeah not much you can do about ti anymore - JYPE clearly have a stance on it even if it's detrimental to the group in the longer term. As much money now as possible
Anyhow do people expect 600k next Gaon update? Feel like we might have had an article about it potentially if they had done it yet
Dreamer95
Stan
They never fail to ammuse
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K/DA LoL is the most global kpop group
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But you know that gave me an idea for a related but slightly more interesting thread.
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I wouldn't dwell on the point too much as it's not really appropriate conversation for this thread. I think it's obvious BP are more popular than TWICE in more countries and that's fine, but I think most people don't think on that point enough and actually question what it means.
I mean outside of Asia every metric points to us that their popularity is pretty low...people make this statement as if they are A listers on every continent when in reality they are closer to the z list. They also use intentionally favorable metrics to reinforce the point such as streaming and Youtube numbers ignoring several factors including the countries in which they are truly popular Spotify and YT are huge platforms for music while it's pretty much the opposite for TWICE.
I mean compare SEA countries average 'time online' vs say Japan I mean countries like Thailand and Philippines are in the top 5 and Japan for example is one of the lowest in the world. Like less than 10% of the Japan music market is streaming while in SEA countries and Europe/US it's closer to 95% so yeah putting it that way of course they will excel in streaming and YT while TWICE lack a bit.
Just look at the charts on YT and Spotify the top countries on Youtube are Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines & Brazil and on Spotify are Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand & Malaysia and that's with incredibly aggressive playlisting. Still very localized popularity.
Same for album sales-TWICE sold between JUST Fancy You and Feel Special sold 862k while in like 8 releases and 3 years of sales BPs lifetime is only 859k before the latest comeback. I mean in 2019 TWICE sold nearly triple their entire career sales. But this is ignore because it's in Japan, Korea, etc so that popularity doesn't count.
We also take into account TWICE had much higher touring numbers than BP(414k to 330k) in far fewer shows-but again this is dismissed because a lof of those numbers came from Japan so again it's discounted.
My point would be if BP were miles ahead of TWICE we would see that reflected in album sales and touring and not just streaming and social media followers. Both groups are popular in a different way. I suppose the best wy to put it is a question for me.
If you have 2 people and 1 of them has 50 friends in 50 different towns, 1 friend in each town, and the other has 50 friends in 1 town who's actually more popular?
I mean outside of Asia every metric points to us that their popularity is pretty low...people make this statement as if they are A listers on every continent when in reality they are closer to the z list. They also use intentionally favorable metrics to reinforce the point such as streaming and Youtube numbers ignoring several factors including the countries in which they are truly popular Spotify and YT are huge platforms for music while it's pretty much the opposite for TWICE.
I mean compare SEA countries average 'time online' vs say Japan I mean countries like Thailand and Philippines are in the top 5 and Japan for example is one of the lowest in the world. Like less than 10% of the Japan music market is streaming while in SEA countries and Europe/US it's closer to 95% so yeah putting it that way of course they will excel in streaming and YT while TWICE lack a bit.
Just look at the charts on YT and Spotify the top countries on Youtube are Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines & Brazil and on Spotify are Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand & Malaysia and that's with incredibly aggressive playlisting. Still very localized popularity.
Same for album sales-TWICE sold between JUST Fancy You and Feel Special sold 862k while in like 8 releases and 3 years of sales BPs lifetime is only 859k before the latest comeback. I mean in 2019 TWICE sold nearly triple their entire career sales. But this is ignore because it's in Japan, Korea, etc so that popularity doesn't count.
We also take into account TWICE had much higher touring numbers than BP(414k to 330k) in far fewer shows-but again this is dismissed because a lof of those numbers came from Japan so again it's discounted.
My point would be if BP were miles ahead of TWICE we would see that reflected in album sales and touring and not just streaming and social media followers. Both groups are popular in a different way. I suppose the best wy to put it is a question for me.
If you have 2 people and 1 of them has 50 friends in 50 different towns, 1 friend in each town, and the other has 50 friends in 1 town who's actually more popular?
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Take that Likey...finally.
@NewUser hard to say. Since the last update counting period M&M charted at 72, 66 & 50 with 1 update to go. So 37k based on those positions and some of the albums around them? Would be tough. My thought is a low update this time 15-ish thousand at best and next month a bigger update of maybe 25k as I think the July selling period was lower as most J Once have been buying Fanfare so I thinking August that will die down and we'll see more consistent sales on M&M to take us over the 600k mark.
Probably hit 620-30 by the end of the year imho.
colorpop
StanHaving in mind how kpop grew in terms of YT views since 2017, it really shows what an impactful release Likey was. Good song with great MV and huge meme potential.
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Yeah-it's kind of crazy since it was such early days for Kpop's global expansion and I'm honestly so shocked each time a comeback doesn't pass it's milestones especially Fancy.
My guess is because it was their first real comeback after they debuted in Japan in the Summer of 2017.
Dreamer95
StanThis is kinda what I've been telling for a long time. https://www.allkpop.com/forum/threa...n-by-blackpink-have-rest-of-the-world.323583/
I mean, they are obviously bigger elsewhere, but does their combined fandom in other countries match with Twice's Japanese + Korean fandom? If it did, it would be reflected on sales. The truth is, BP is just a sweetheart of all boy group stans. You can see it during votings such as MAMA. BP would always lead GG category, because BG stans can't vote for their faves there, but on overall artist category, BP was even behind Mamamoo if I remember correctly. None of those bg fangirls chose to vote for them.
As for youtube views, I don't even trust them for a second. Like in order to talk about them, I should at least believe those numbers, but so many indications scream "not real" for me.
Dreamer95
StanMore&More had like 30 million ads tho. I lowkey hate JYP for starting to use ads. Whatever views are let them be organic. He only let other fandoms drag us back because we were dragging them for using ads. Seriously this dude just works against Onces all the time.
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On the BP point yeah I agree with most of it and honestly I also thinks it's the case that most of their casual listeners and fans are in SEA and the US/EU and the actual primary user-base for forums such as this and AllKpop, etc are from those countries too so they will obviously have way way more stans on these boards over TWICE as let's be honest I've yet to see 1 Japanese person on these forums and know only 2 people who for sure live in Korea and that's it...so I don't think we get a fair idea of the popularity difference.
I personally think BP are more popular in the sense that they have a lot more casual listeners and are more likely to be a lot of peoples 2nd and 3rd fav group over say TWICE, at the same time tho I don't think that popularity difference is very big and that's why they have struggled to sell on the level TWICE can or even tour-I think core fandom wise ONCE is still larger.
On the Likey point-I would also say I am not a fan either of ad's because it creates two problems imho. 1, it obviously skews the view count to a less reliable number to measure growth and fan participation and 2, it discourages I think people from streaming-I feel like people think 'ow well the views will be fine we have ads' rather than streaming or naturally watching the MVs for fun.
But I would also point out that Likey had ad's too and back in 2017 no one was really keeping tabs on it too much and YT didn't filter on charts so to what extent that aided Likey in it's records we'll also never really know.
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Not to be spamming but kind of bored so...But kind of chart's & sales related.
How do ya'll think the upcoming online concert will do numbers wise? I have no idea what to expect but personally I feel like it's really really well priced and hope most ONCE will be buying it and tuning in, I'm excited and hope it goes well for the girls and we get a great turn out. Hoping for around 70-80k if we're lucky. I know SuperM had 75k and NCT had 104k so who knows.
Boy groups tend to be more supportive so maybe 70k for TWICE is me being too hopeful fingers crossed.
Edit: Just heard I-Land from GIdle had about 11k so hmm....
How do ya'll think the upcoming online concert will do numbers wise? I have no idea what to expect but personally I feel like it's really really well priced and hope most ONCE will be buying it and tuning in, I'm excited and hope it goes well for the girls and we get a great turn out. Hoping for around 70-80k if we're lucky. I know SuperM had 75k and NCT had 104k so who knows.
Boy groups tend to be more supportive so maybe 70k for TWICE is me being too hopeful fingers crossed.
Edit: Just heard I-Land from GIdle had about 11k so hmm....
trace
NuguMM has been charting lower than the other older albums this month. And these older albums past 3 updates were just between 6 - 3k. So it looks the next update will be around those numbers as well. Keep in mind that MM had a full month shipping for the 1st month while Fancy, FS for example had only a week equivalent of shipment for their 1st month Gaon update. So it should be like this:
1st month MM = 1st + 2nd month Fancy, FS
2nd month MM = 3rd month Fancy, FS
So from that we should be expecting less than 10k next Gaon update for MM. Iz*one's album has been charting higher than MM these past weekly Gaon ranking. So i wont be surprised if they might ended up with higher overalls (regular + khino ver) next update.
Online popularity is useless if you can't monetized it. Twice monetized their popularity with tons of mechandize as well as concert. They are saying that the real money is in tours. But Twice were also able to tour in SEA with soldout arenas too. Twice did a successful tour in the US as well.
In truth, BP has just been riding on the popularity of other more popular artists the past years. The way their fans hyped the collabs from Dua Lipa to Lady Gaga (and to Arianna Grande next).. One would expect them to really hit hard in US the way Twice hit it hard in Japan by their own. But no. Their sales are just "decent". Might be amazing in comparison to other ggs but really their achievements in the west are not that amazing vs how other kpop GGs (Kara, SNSD, Twice) had dominated the Japan market. Anyway I expect their fans to go all out for their next album. They better be coz it might even be their last cb before disbandment knowing YG is gonna debut a new GG very soon :tea1:
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On spoiler, pretty much is all I'll say.
Yeah 10k and 15k at a push all depending on this last 2 updates. I think my counting for Twice was off. I counted the update on the 4th which I'm pretty sure was wrong-I think that was counted for June. Which means we've had only 2 counts for the next update 11th, 18th and we still have the 25th and the 1st to count for the next update-so 2 weeks left.
Which puts More & More at 66 and 50 while in that same time period OD charted at 16 and 10 so they will be higher depending on these next two updates-however 2 note. 1, the Kit didn't chart at all in that period so wont register sales and 2, they are still need to ship around 25k + w/e M&M ships that month.
Who knows. Regardless I think it'll still shift back to TWICE in the end anyway. They front load a lot-BloomIz hasn't updated since month two inspite of it not being sold out in that time so I expect the same for OD while we know TWICE has long term selling pedigree.
Dreamer95
StanI doubt it was to that extend. Maybe they got 5 million views at best or not. Blinks keep sharing same 3 tweets to prove it did have ads.
Dreamer95
StanAnyway, do you guys think since More&More didn't do well on charts, it is actually a good idea to not wait until next comeback, or at least do a repackage? DTNA after WIL kinda gave us a breath of fresh air, Twice got another huge hit after couple of average hits? We need at least WIL or YOY level song asap. Don't even care if I like it, ever since M&M, even though, I liked it, we are getting dragged.
And honestly, we need upbeat songs. Don't have to be cute to be upbeat. Something like Boom Boom or AKB's Tension. I am tired of Emo Twice
And honestly, we need upbeat songs. Don't have to be cute to be upbeat. Something like Boom Boom or AKB's Tension. I am tired of Emo Twice
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Both have benefits. Waiting builds hype and distances yourself from the old 'under-performer' so M&M wont be fresh in peoples minds and much like Feel Special it will be unlikely to be held against them by the GP and they'll check it out.
Coming back quick with a hit has the benefit of really putting the breaks on M&M and getting TWICE right back into the drivers seat with a hit...
But again both have draw backs....it's all good and well to hope TWICE go back to the upbeat bubblegum pop that they are great at and excels with in Korea and that will be a hit. In reality they are likely to proceed with this less favorable TWICE 2.0 which makes it more likely to under perform again.
With that said coming back super fast with two less successful songs could be a killer blow to their reputation.
For me it's paramount I like the song, the biggest issue most ONCE are having is they don't like M&M-it's pretty universally considered among the lowest rated titles from what I've seen. So I think coming back with the right song and bringing back something fun, bubbly and energetic from an experienced Korean hit maker(not just taking a freebie from MNEK and Zara) is the right way to go and if that takes a while so be it.
Right now ONCE are really praying on a full album or at least a TWICETOBER comeback and if that's missed for the sake of a quick turn around repack I think following the news of #T3 that will just kill a lot of morale and hype.
colorpop
StanI don't think JYPE has that many chances left to make mistakes, at least if they still aim for public success for TWICE. They better come prepaired next time.
Dreamer95
StanI still think we need to ehmmmm...let JYP know about this? Cause I honestly don't think he does. Dude is preparing for comeback ffs. It will all be lost if Onces don't act. I don't have any hope.
