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Maybe-but I think the growth of others is also overatted, now this isn't a bash or a downplay-rather a statement of what I'm actually seeing.Yeah I think you have to be pretty deluded to say Twice are declining (maybe an argument for domestically on the digital front but Twice were already at an unprecedented level of consistency that is impossible to keep up unless you're IU. Consecutive top 10 hits isn't easy with how much music they put out), I just think it has got louder recently as other groups are growing and beating some records they have set with Izone currently and BP most likely as well going by their Chinese sales. Thing is even if Twice aren't growing as quickly as some they're still growing.
Blink for example started crowdfunding and collecting donations as early as mid January of this year. They have also been selling their merch, old albums, etc to raise money and in the last couple of months opening up pop up stalls selling sweets and bake treats...things of that nature you know...
All of which is going to donation for albums they will never get-so delivery is like 30-40 bucks...right now on Ktown that's almost 3-4 additional albums. These strategies are smart-but it's not an indicator of massive growth-I mean yeah like most groups they are growing, but not to the level it would seem. I would be interested to have seen the sales shift if they weren't using crowdfunding and non shipped back albums.
Same for Izone-the sales for Bloom'iz for example didn't go up at all in Japan-and they had been effectively waiting for a comeback since before November-not even mentioning the company basically put out in the media weeks before the comeback that the only reason they weren't disbanded was because of their sales and success. This is so unprecedented-to have a group on the verge of being shut down like their brother group and pretty much a compeny softly putting out the 'buy it or else' media play it really didn't surprise me that they nearly double Heart'iz sales. They also had 3 fansigns in the first week-something Twice and BP will likely not be able to do this time around.
But I think for both these groups theres growth and decline depending area to area, same for Twice, I think what is truly separating the sales growth is fandom dedication and motivation.
I mean I have never heard of a fandom doing bake sales or having paypal donation pools for a comeback until this year-it's really a new thing to me. The fans are really chasing records and pushing sales, even if it means buying albums you'll never get.
Who knows how things will go. I expect Twice to pass 500k ez with this album, anything above that is an unknown-esp with the incoming Fanfare single and potential for 0 fansigns....it really makes it difficult to know. Even tho Twice sell a lot Once still tend to be casual about it, can we match the other fandoms creativity and dedication? That remains to be seen.
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StanMaybe-but I think the growth of others is also overatted, now this isn't a bash or a downplay-rather a statement of what I'm actually seeing.
Blink for example started crowdfunding and collecting donations as early as mid January of this year. They have also been selling their merch, old albums, etc to raise money and in the last couple of months opening up pop up stalls selling sweets and bake treats...things of that nature you know...
All of which is going to donation for albums they will never get-so delivery is like 30-40 bucks...right now on Ktown that's almost 3-4 additional albums. These strategies are smart-but it's not an indicator of massive growth-I mean yeah like most groups they are growing, but not to the level it would seem. I would be interested to have seen the sales shift if they weren't using crowdfunding and non shipped back albums.
Same for Izone-the sales for Bloom'iz for example didn't go up at all in Japan-and they had been effectively waiting for a comeback since before November-not even mentioning the company basically put out in the media weeks before the comeback that the only reason they weren't disbanded was because of their sales and success. This is so unprecedented-to have a group on the verge of being shut down like their brother group and pretty much a compeny softly putting out the 'buy it or else' media play it really didn't surprise me that they nearly double Heart'iz sales. They also had 3 fansigns in the first week-something Twice and BP will likely not be able to do this time around.
But I think for both these groups theres growth and decline depending area to area, same for Twice, I think what is truly separating the sales growth is fandom dedication and motivation.
I mean I have never heard of a fandom doing bake sales or having paypal donation pools for a comeback until this year-it's really a new thing to me. The fans are really chasing records and pushing sales, even if it means buying albums you'll never get.
Who knows how things will go. I expect Twice to pass 500k ez with this album, anything above that is an unknown-esp with the incoming Fanfare single and potential for 0 fansigns....it really makes it difficult to know. Even tho Twice sell a lot Once still tend to be casual about it, can we match the other fandoms creativity and dedication? That remains to be seen.
Honestly I don't disagree at all.
You think about the unique circumstances it has taken for groups to get near and beat Twice's single album sales records. Izone had fans saving up only for the comeback to be indefinitely delayed with the threat of disbandment. So they ended up having essentially double the amount of time to save and then the extra motivation of proving their worth after the potential disbandment.
You have BP who starve their fans to a crazy level of more than a year, leaving them thirsty for anything and saving up as much as they can to prove a point to YG and also prove their worth as well.
Then you have Twice, who routinely outsold every groups top sales, multiple times a year with no special circumstances. Normal release patterns, multiple Korean and Japanese releases a year, yet still growing.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think either of the other two groups beat Twice unless they had their unique circumstances. Kpop fans won't think about that context though which is why they're so loud about Twice declining. Some even think you can apply yearly growth rates to multiple releases a year which deifnitely doesn't work.
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The whole gaming of metrics and sales numbers has gotten out of hand lately, to the point where you can't really extract any meaningful observations from those numbers. YT views increasing? New fans, ads, or net cafes rented out for mass streaming? Album sales up? New fans, same fans buying X albums, or more of those albums purchased only to be donated to some school that never asked for it in the first place? For most fans crowing about those numbers, it doesn't matter, but for agencies who are trying to plan activities and schedules, it does - that fan who buys X albums only has one ass to fill one concert seat. Those X albums that got donated to some school isn't going to translate into X concert tickets for the next tour.
If there's one metric that provides a truer picture of the health of a fandom, it's the sales of the back catalog. The fact that the combined sales of older albums annually is equivalent to the sales of an actual comeback (300K+) says a lot, and is, IINM, something that is still unmatched by any current GG.
Considering the pandemic, the resulting economic downturn, and the inability for Twice to actively promote their comebacks, I'd be more than happy if M&M's sales ends up just being on par with FS.
If there's one metric that provides a truer picture of the health of a fandom, it's the sales of the back catalog. The fact that the combined sales of older albums annually is equivalent to the sales of an actual comeback (300K+) says a lot, and is, IINM, something that is still unmatched by any current GG.
Considering the pandemic, the resulting economic downturn, and the inability for Twice to actively promote their comebacks, I'd be more than happy if M&M's sales ends up just being on par with FS.
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These are my thoughts as well. IZ*ONE sales jumped cause fans were afraid they would disband after the Produce scandal and showed out to express their support, blinks haven't had anything in a year and have been crowdfunding for months. This isn't to dismiss their efforts, but it makes me wonder how much either group actually grew in fanbase. Meanwhile Twice's albums have shown constent growth regularly without these tactics, so I'm not concerned about their sales even if another group sells more for an individual album.Maybe-but I think the growth of others is also overatted, now this isn't a bash or a downplay-rather a statement of what I'm actually seeing.
Blink for example started crowdfunding and collecting donations as early as mid January of this year. They have also been selling their merch, old albums, etc to raise money and in the last couple of months opening up pop up stalls selling sweets and bake treats...things of that nature you know...
All of which is going to donation for albums they will never get-so delivery is like 30-40 bucks...right now on Ktown that's almost 3-4 additional albums. These strategies are smart-but it's not an indicator of massive growth-I mean yeah like most groups they are growing, but not to the level it would seem. I would be interested to have seen the sales shift if they weren't using crowdfunding and non shipped back albums.
Same for Izone-the sales for Bloom'iz for example didn't go up at all in Japan-and they had been effectively waiting for a comeback since before November-not even mentioning the company basically put out in the media weeks before the comeback that the only reason they weren't disbanded was because of their sales and success. This is so unprecedented-to have a group on the verge of being shut down like their brother group and pretty much a compeny softly putting out the 'buy it or else' media play it really didn't surprise me that they nearly double Heart'iz sales. They also had 3 fansigns in the first week-something Twice and BP will likely not be able to do this time around.
But I think for both these groups theres growth and decline depending area to area, same for Twice, I think what is truly separating the sales growth is fandom dedication and motivation.
I mean I have never heard of a fandom doing bake sales or having paypal donation pools for a comeback until this year-it's really a new thing to me. The fans are really chasing records and pushing sales, even if it means buying albums you'll never get.
Who knows how things will go. I expect Twice to pass 500k ez with this album, anything above that is an unknown-esp with the incoming Fanfare single and potential for 0 fansigns....it really makes it difficult to know. Even tho Twice sell a lot Once still tend to be casual about it, can we match the other fandoms creativity and dedication? That remains to be seen.
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Already almost double FY preorders without knowing what the concept photos look like, maybe they can hit 100k
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Yeah I'm honestly surprised that it hasn't even been a week yet-I think this is already more than both Feel Special and Fancy You's total orders on Ktown4u right? Even tho they've been selling for 9 months to well over a year at this point.Already almost double FY preorders without knowing what the concept photos look like, maybe they can hit 100k![]()
I'm certain 50-60k is gonna happen, maybe even above 80k-who knows. That would be crazy.
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Maybe-but I think the growth of others is also overatted, now this isn't a bash or a downplay-rather a statement of what I'm actually seeing.
Blink for example started crowdfunding and collecting donations as early as mid January of this year. They have also been selling their merch, old albums, etc to raise money and in the last couple of months opening up pop up stalls selling sweets and bake treats...things of that nature you know...
All of which is going to donation for albums they will never get-so delivery is like 30-40 bucks...right now on Ktown that's almost 3-4 additional albums. These strategies are smart-but it's not an indicator of massive growth-I mean yeah like most groups they are growing, but not to the level it would seem. I would be interested to have seen the sales shift if they weren't using crowdfunding and non shipped back albums.
Same for Izone-the sales for Bloom'iz for example didn't go up at all in Japan-and they had been effectively waiting for a comeback since before November-not even mentioning the company basically put out in the media weeks before the comeback that the only reason they weren't disbanded was because of their sales and success. This is so unprecedented-to have a group on the verge of being shut down like their brother group and pretty much a compeny softly putting out the 'buy it or else' media play it really didn't surprise me that they nearly double Heart'iz sales. They also had 3 fansigns in the first week-something Twice and BP will likely not be able to do this time around.
But I think for both these groups theres growth and decline depending area to area, same for Twice, I think what is truly separating the sales growth is fandom dedication and motivation.
I mean I have never heard of a fandom doing bake sales or having paypal donation pools for a comeback until this year-it's really a new thing to me. The fans are really chasing records and pushing sales, even if it means buying albums you'll never get.
Who knows how things will go. I expect Twice to pass 500k ez with this album, anything above that is an unknown-esp with the incoming Fanfare single and potential for 0 fansigns....it really makes it difficult to know. Even tho Twice sell a lot Once still tend to be casual about it, can we match the other fandoms creativity and dedication? That remains to be seen.
Honestly I don't disagree at all.
You think about the unique circumstances it has taken for groups to get near and beat Twice's single album sales records. Izone had fans saving up only for the comeback to be indefinitely delayed with the threat of disbandment. So they ended up having essentially double the amount of time to save and then the extra motivation of proving their worth after the potential disbandment.
You have BP who starve their fans to a crazy level of more than a year, leaving them thirsty for anything and saving up as much as they can to prove a point to YG and also prove their worth as well.
Then you have Twice, who routinely outsold every groups top sales, multiple times a year with no special circumstances. Normal release patterns, multiple Korean and Japanese releases a year, yet still growing.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think either of the other two groups beat Twice unless they had their unique circumstances. Kpop fans won't think about that context though which is why they're so loud about Twice declining. Some even think you can apply yearly growth rates to multiple releases a year which deifnitely doesn't work.
good indicator of the groups fandom growing or not = back catalog sales = new fans who active buy OLDER albums are the new LOYAL fans.
if their back catalog never showing constant growth thats just fans bulkbuy to make records. for example BTS fans are massively buybulk but their back catalog is also growing.
i mean there is nothing wrong with bulkbuy to make records, atleast company or fandom will mediaplay or brag about to hype non fans become fans. but unless you have TRUE UNIQUE reason why you should stan the group, fandom will increase automaticly and organicly without any of that, i think good example for this is day6 fandom.
anyway, im confident this comeback will be huge for physical, but im still not sure about their digital though.. this really worried me a lot lately but im not koreans, so i dont know if TWICE really losing their hype or losing their public relevance or not,
bcs their digital in the past is really the best among all 3rd gen groups since sistar and 2ne1. i know not all of songs will be HUGE HITS even adele has flop song but feel special digital really underperform by TWICE standart so far.
we know TWICE didnt have that BIG FANDOM in Korea like BG fans, but they are decently big to be able perform sold out concert in KSPO DOME? (or maybe twice overseas fans or j onces are really dedicated fly to korea to fill KSPO dome).
TWICE digital is really carried by GENERAL PUBLIC thats why their B-sides never charted on melon like a boygroups fandom (BTS,EXO,NCT etc.) even izone charted their Bsides like boygroup fandom with their fandom power. maybe majority of K-Onces are dudes who didnt really care about stupid fandom streaming and just enjoy the song if the songs is good.
The whole gaming of metrics and sales numbers has gotten out of hand lately, to the point where you can't really extract any meaningful observations from those numbers. YT views increasing? New fans, ads, or net cafes rented out for mass streaming? Album sales up? New fans, same fans buying X albums, or more of those albums purchased only to be donated to some school that never asked for it in the first place? For most fans crowing about those numbers, it doesn't matter, but for agencies who are trying to plan activities and schedules, it does - that fan who buys X albums only has one ass to fill one concert seat. Those X albums that got donated to some school isn't going to translate into X concert tickets for the next tour.
If there's one metric that provides a truer picture of the health of a fandom, it's the sales of the back catalog. The fact that the combined sales of older albums annually is equivalent to the sales of an actual comeback (300K+) says a lot, and is, IINM, something that is still unmatched by any current GG.
Considering the pandemic, the resulting economic downturn, and the inability for Twice to actively promote their comebacks, I'd be more than happy if M&M's sales ends up just being on par with FS.
this year will be the year to decide are TWICE still untouchable one top girlgroup or not. i think if they are i will surprised, normally girlgroup are reaching their peak in their fifth year. if they are not i will still glad as long as they are still love each other and not break up i will be more glad if their 6th-10th year their still actively release new stuff. dont really care if they are the "IT" group or not.
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@zai Yeah the digital as far as I'm concerned is always a lotery and really depends song to song-decline/hype really can't be measured imho too much by digital performance.
Look at Twice vs other groups. Fancy is surely a top 5 idol song of last year in digitals which all things considered is great. Like Zim, RBB, Oompah were all massive flops for Red Velvet and everyone was convinced they were gonna slide further and further down, yet Psycho has completely changed the narrative-similar to Hip for Mamamoo.
Another good example would be BTS. Hype wise does it get any bigger? BWL was by far the biggest idol hit of 2019 and they were just everywhere and completely exploded in Korea-yet ON was almost a flop with the public. It's charting is around the same level as Feel Special and that's with the biggest fandom in Korean history streaming it day and night....I mean if hype mattered that much for a songs success we didn't see it with ON.
Same for KTL-BP were coming off their biggest ever year, 2 massive hits with Solo and D4 and the hype was huge, articles everyday, trending on Naver, nate, etc and a lot of people were mad hype for the comeback...yet it was an average size hit the charted out quickly.
So it really depends-Twice could have all the anticipation and hype in the world and if the song isn't great that wont matter for a second. IU song is falling faster than expected in UL's-lost about 400k in the week and still going down-Bol4 and Beakhyun are also not doing huge numbers like Any Song so hopefully both will be out of the way by June 1st.
The only real worries are Crush x Joy and Beakhyun solo a week earlier. Exo L will be streaming hard making AK's super difficult and Crush, tho a bit of a one hit wonder, could make a splash and present a spanner in the works also.
Digitals could be tough. But you know it's Twice a lot of post on the Qoo and enter talk have been getting a lot of views and positive comments so far looking forward to the comeback and DTNA is rising up the charts again, soon enough it'll be above Fancy and probably Feel Special...so Korea is clearly anticipating and wanting a big, fresh Summer hit-something I'm confident Twice could smash again if that's the route they go....so fingers crossed.
Look at Twice vs other groups. Fancy is surely a top 5 idol song of last year in digitals which all things considered is great. Like Zim, RBB, Oompah were all massive flops for Red Velvet and everyone was convinced they were gonna slide further and further down, yet Psycho has completely changed the narrative-similar to Hip for Mamamoo.
Another good example would be BTS. Hype wise does it get any bigger? BWL was by far the biggest idol hit of 2019 and they were just everywhere and completely exploded in Korea-yet ON was almost a flop with the public. It's charting is around the same level as Feel Special and that's with the biggest fandom in Korean history streaming it day and night....I mean if hype mattered that much for a songs success we didn't see it with ON.
Same for KTL-BP were coming off their biggest ever year, 2 massive hits with Solo and D4 and the hype was huge, articles everyday, trending on Naver, nate, etc and a lot of people were mad hype for the comeback...yet it was an average size hit the charted out quickly.
So it really depends-Twice could have all the anticipation and hype in the world and if the song isn't great that wont matter for a second. IU song is falling faster than expected in UL's-lost about 400k in the week and still going down-Bol4 and Beakhyun are also not doing huge numbers like Any Song so hopefully both will be out of the way by June 1st.
The only real worries are Crush x Joy and Beakhyun solo a week earlier. Exo L will be streaming hard making AK's super difficult and Crush, tho a bit of a one hit wonder, could make a splash and present a spanner in the works also.
Digitals could be tough. But you know it's Twice a lot of post on the Qoo and enter talk have been getting a lot of views and positive comments so far looking forward to the comeback and DTNA is rising up the charts again, soon enough it'll be above Fancy and probably Feel Special...so Korea is clearly anticipating and wanting a big, fresh Summer hit-something I'm confident Twice could smash again if that's the route they go....so fingers crossed.
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Just a reminder that Twice is currently 3rd overall in terms of music show wins at 97. With this comeback, they should easily take 2nd, and also become the GG with the most music show wins (knock on wood).
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@zai Yeah the digital as far as I'm concerned is always a lotery and really depends song to song-decline/hype really can't be measured imho too much by digital performance.
Look at Twice vs other groups. Fancy is surely a top 5 idol song of last year in digitals which all things considered is great. Like Zim, RBB, Oompah were all massive flops for Red Velvet and everyone was convinced they were gonna slide further and further down, yet Psycho has completely changed the narrative-similar to Hip for Mamamoo.
Another good example would be BTS. Hype wise does it get any bigger? BWL was by far the biggest idol hit of 2019 and they were just everywhere and completely exploded in Korea-yet ON was almost a flop with the public. It's charting is around the same level as Feel Special and that's with the biggest fandom in Korean history streaming it day and night....I mean if hype mattered that much for a songs success we didn't see it with ON.
Same for KTL-BP were coming off their biggest ever year, 2 massive hits with Solo and D4 and the hype was huge, articles everyday, trending on Naver, nate, etc and a lot of people were mad hype for the comeback...yet it was an average size hit the charted out quickly.
yeah i think as long as the group already have HITS or well known enough to korean public, the next song is depend on the song only and public are fickle, we really dont know public taste. feel special was flopped by twice standard in korea but internationally they did great almost same level like fancy tbh. feel special soon will be 100m in spotify btw.
So it really depends-Twice could have all the anticipation and hype in the world and if the song isn't great that wont matter for a second. IU song is falling faster than expected in UL's-lost about 400k in the week and still going down-Bol4 and Beakhyun are also not doing huge numbers like Any Song so hopefully both will be out of the way by June 1st.
melon also losing relevance, i will judge digital performance by index only.
i think baekhyun fans will only stream in the first week, because EXO solo member only promote for 1 week, and their sales also frontloaded too so they wont think getting chances for win next week.The only real worries are Crush x Joy and Beakhyun solo a week earlier. Exo L will be streaming hard making AK's super difficult and Crush, tho a bit of a one hit wonder, could make a splash and present a spanner in the works also.
Digitals could be tough. But you know it's Twice a lot of post on the Qoo and enter talk have been getting a lot of views and positive comments so far looking forward to the comeback and DTNA is rising up the charts again, soon enough it'll be above Fancy and probably Feel Special...so Korea is clearly anticipating and wanting a big, fresh Summer hit-something I'm confident Twice could smash again if that's the route they go....so fingers crossed.
i really hope they got their digital redemption this year.
Just a reminder that Twice is currently 3rd overall in terms of music show wins at 97. With this comeback, they should easily take 2nd, and also become the GG with the most music show wins (knock on wood).
they will have 7-10 win for sure. its in the bag.
could More&More (or BP) be the first girlgroup album in 5 years (3 if we count Taeyeon in 2017) to top Gaon monthly chart in June? i can't think of any boygroup with bigger/similar sales debuting in June so lmk if i'm missing anyone lol
i don't know if it's relevant but it's crazy to think that no women could top Gaon albums once in 3/5 years, this time can be a good chance for either TW or BP
i don't know if it's relevant but it's crazy to think that no women could top Gaon albums once in 3/5 years, this time can be a good chance for either TW or BP
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woah i didnt know that, thanks for the info. i have feeling more exo member will have solo though.. imagine sehun or kai solo? it will break 500k for sure ngl. i really hope more onces can be loud about this because this comeback is really decide factor for surecould More&More (or BP) be the first girlgroup album in 5 years (3 if we count Taeyeon in 2017) to top Gaon monthly chart in June? i can't think of any boygroup with bigger/similar sales debuting in June so lmk if i'm missing anyone lol
i don't know if it's relevant but it's crazy to think that no women could top Gaon albums once in 3/5 years, this time can be a good chance for either TW or BP
woah i didnt know that, thanks for the info. i have feeling more exo member will have solo though.. imagine sehun or kai solo? it will break 500k for sure ngl. i really hope more onces can be loud about this because this comeback is really decide factor for sure
yes, last was SNSD Lion Heart in 2015 and Taeyeon My Voice in 2017. even for the weekly chart, usually only 10-15 weeks out of 52 in a year are topped by girls...
TWICE is a legendary group that deserves a #1 album
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Gaon #1 monthly album is nice to have, but for GGs, Gaon monthly charting is all about timing. Unfortunately, Twice has never really had a comeback to an empty house. BTS, EXO (group, subgroup, or soloists), Seventeen, Wanna One, X1...there was always someone there. Twice used to be one of the Top 5 BGs, but nowadays SJ (with their members back from NS) and NCT127 have the sales to trump Twice. TCL1's 350K was enough to place Twice in 5th on Gaon Album Chart back in 2016. But FS's 413K only got them 10th in 2019. BG physical sales are just on another level - the expansion of Kpop's popularity globally has benefitted the BGs much more than the GGs overall.yes, last was SNSD Lion Heart in 2015 and Taeyeon My Voice in 2017. even for the weekly chart, usually only 10-15 weeks out of 52 in a year are topped by girls...
TWICE is a legendary group that deserves a #1 album
Twice is one of only two GGs to be on the Gaon Yearly Top 10 Album chart since 2010 (2016, 2018, & 2019; the other GG being SNSD) - that's legendary enough for me.
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StanJust to add something else that I'd like to think shows that there release is being anticipated is that they've been the most searched GG on Melon this year despite no comeback in 9 months, with every group around them having comebacks recently
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isnt it bit too low for gmarket and synnara? k onces buying on ktown4u for hanteo certified??
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Ktown4u was offering substantial discounts early on, and a lot of fan accounts on Twitter were promoting it for their group buys. Both Synnara and Gmarket were about 5K on Day 4 for FS preorders (Ktown4u was about 8K), and I believe both are hanteo certified as well.isnt it bit too low for gmarket and synnara? k onces buying on ktown4u for hanteo certified??
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Y
Yeddong
GuestKtown4u was offering substantial discounts early on, and a lot of fan accounts on Twitter were promoting it for their group buys. Both Synnara and Gmarket were about 5K on Day 4 for FS preorders (Ktown4u was about 8K), and I believe both are hanteo certified as well.
LET'S GO MORE AND MORE! ONCE WANTS TO TAKE BACK OUR RECORDS!
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