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I don't think it's impossible for Nizi and Twice to work together or collab further down the road - even if the two are on separate labels, they are both linked to JYPE after all. The fact that Momo and Sana showed up during Tokyo Auditions, that they covered tons of Twice songs for their stages, and that Nizi was envisioned as a Japanese version of Twice from the outset definitely points to a strong connection between the two groups. It would be a shame not to exploit that connection - the last stage did result in Feel Special rising on the charts after all.
As for Sony, I expect JYPE's working relationship with them to be very similar to what they have with WMJ, which is highly collaborative. JYPE Japan is a pretty small team, so they rely a lot on WMJ not only to do the groundwork but also high-level advisory issues. I remember an old article referring to lots of meetings with many stakeholders, and the appreciation the JYPE director had on local input. WMJ with Twice is definitely following more kpop-style media strategies, so I suspect Sony will as well.
Hoping there will be some Twice interactions in Phase 2 as well.
As for Sony, I expect JYPE's working relationship with them to be very similar to what they have with WMJ, which is highly collaborative. JYPE Japan is a pretty small team, so they rely a lot on WMJ not only to do the groundwork but also high-level advisory issues. I remember an old article referring to lots of meetings with many stakeholders, and the appreciation the JYPE director had on local input. WMJ with Twice is definitely following more kpop-style media strategies, so I suspect Sony will as well.
Hoping there will be some Twice interactions in Phase 2 as well.
BPiperDude
StanI agree. I think some people might be thinking that Twice was responsible for Itzy but it wasn't really all Twice or JYP stans. Itzy had people interested in it from many resources including Twice/JYP, BTS(Ryujin, Yuna), Mixnine/YG stans (Ryujin), IOI(Somi-even though she didn't debut they became aware of the group), The FAN (Yeji) and IZ-ONE (Chaeryeong). That great combination is probably one reason why Itzy didn't appear in any promo video's from other older groups. They already had the exposure. Nizi unfortunately won't have any of that. I think the levels of sales will be a bit bigger than the 20K or so more like 60K and that is assuming it's an album or mini. Unfortunately at this point I agree with you it's just a wild guess
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200605 Nizi Project S2 Ep7 ENG SUB by Nizi Project English Subtitle
I also don't think it's impossible to have Twice collaborate with Nizi I just don't know how helpful for either team it will be. Maybe I'm just cynical, but collabs imo don't usually increase the fandom of the lesser known group by much. They get more notoriety and a little bit of name recognition for sure, but that usually doesn't translate into more fans at least not in an expressive number. If they do collab I hope it's a small project that doesn't take much time from either group's promotions because the gains from it aren't enough to me. It would require some extended talks between their Japanese representatives, but I'm sure they could figure out a way to make it work especially if JYPE mediates.
The only issue I have with using JYPE's relationship with WMJ to predict how their deal with Sony will unfold is that Twice was already popular in Japan when they made the deal so JYPE had leverage to demand more in the agreement. With Sony they start on equal footing, so for JYPE to proceed as they want they need Sony's approval. Without leverage that would require Sony to either agree that it is the best choice or for some give and take negotiations to transpire. Again I don't think it's impossible that Sony will embrace new media, but history shows Japanese companies hesitate a lot more in doing it.
I would definitely have liked some more interactions by the girls with other JYPE artists. Even the small talks and training sessions they did in Sixteen between the girls and Fei an Jo Kwon were nice to see. Momo and Sana being judges is less interesting to me because they didn't really interacted with the girls just watched them and told JYP what they thought. In the future unless they do shows together or JYP brings back the company concert I don't think they'll have many chances to interact. Twice is super busy and I doubt their Japanese promotions will overlap. If JYPE decides to produce a reality show that puts the girls together kind of like SM did with Secret Unnie that can happen, but that would require Twice to have some free time, which might happen depending on how the pandemic evolves with both Korea and Japan trying to open up their measures.
Yeah Itzy had a lot of pre-debut activities, especially Yeji and Ryujin. Even then JYPE decided to only release their debut digitally iirc. They managed to sell over 100k with their first physical but that was after their debut exploded digitally. I think JYPE were smart with Itzy too by letting them get their own fandom and not rely too much on so and so's sister group marketing. The company association definitely helps and adds to their success, but I feel like forcing a groups image in connection to another really limits the growth of the fandom. A small percentage of the older group's fans will become fans of the new group and people who weren't fans of the older group will be reluctant to join in. This is especially true if the group is still active. The fans will focus on supporting their original group rather than the new one.
Yeah the numbers are purely speculative. There isn't really a reliable way to predict that unless you have the raw numbers of things like Hulu views, unique IP connections to the voting, and other stuff we don't get to see. My guess is around 20k because that is how mid tier relatively well known groups sell. You can't really compare them to Johnny's groups or 48/46 groups, or even the Sasshi produced groups yet. Their popularity isn't there from what I have seen. I think maybe they can be around some of the Hello Pro groups, but they have less name recognition both company wise and member wise right now.
Also more than likely they will come out with a single with 2-5 songs. Albums sell less in Japan 99% of the time because they are more expensive. Companies both big and indie start with a few singles and if the interest and results are big enough they come out with an album. It's hard to say right now how they expect the girls to do. One more factor is if the social distancing rules continue or go back to being stronger things like fan meetings that are a big pusher of sales can't be done which brings the projected sales down.
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In light of these sales estimates/speculation, does that change your thoughts on what JYPE will possible do in regards to debut size of the group? a 13 member group is going to be a lot more resource intensive in managing than say a 7 member group with the room & board, travel costs, staff required, training, etc. sure they may think having extra members to a certain degree may bring more fans/revenue but there's a certain threshold of cost/benefit. 20K estimate in album sales isn't even going to pay for the costs of producing an album, music video. They're going to need a lot of other revenue sources to survive. Would the company tend to be more conservative with their decision making unless they had a higher projection?
Later today on Sukkiri starts the 2 day spotlight on Nizi Project. Rima's team will be featured first, and Mako's team the next day. Also seems like Sukkiri started an official instagram account and Mori Keisuke announcer will do a instagram live in it to watch the Hulu show together(?).
Arbitrary cumulative ranking with a 1-13 points system
Arbitrary cumulative ranking with a 1-13 points system
- Miihi - 549
- Ayaka - 510
- Rima - 491
- Mako - 445
- Mayuka - 402
- Nina - 376
- Maya - 346
- Yuna - 323
- Rio - 271
- Riku - 238
- Akari - 231
- Riria - 114
- Momoka - 72
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1st Day Ranking vs. Last Day Ranking
1. Miihi ( 2 ⇨ 1) [+1]
2. Mayuka ( 9 ⇨ 2) [+7]
3. Yuna (8 ⇨ 3) [+5]
4. Ayaka (5 ⇨ 4) [+1]
5. Mako (4 ⇨ 5) [-1]
6. Maya (7 ⇨ 6) [+1]
7. Rima (3 ⇨ 7) [-4]
8. Rio (6 ⇨ 8) [-2]
9. Riku (11 ⇨ 9) [+2]
10. Nina (1 ⇨ 10) [-9]
11. Akari (10 ⇨ 11) [-1]
12. Momoka (13 ⇨ 12) [+1]
13. Riria (12 ⇨ 13) [-1]
2. Mayuka ( 9 ⇨ 2) [+7]
3. Yuna (8 ⇨ 3) [+5]
4. Ayaka (5 ⇨ 4) [+1]
5. Mako (4 ⇨ 5) [-1]
6. Maya (7 ⇨ 6) [+1]
7. Rima (3 ⇨ 7) [-4]
8. Rio (6 ⇨ 8) [-2]
9. Riku (11 ⇨ 9) [+2]
10. Nina (1 ⇨ 10) [-9]
11. Akari (10 ⇨ 11) [-1]
12. Momoka (13 ⇨ 12) [+1]
13. Riria (12 ⇨ 13) [-1]
Last edited:
Not really. The most important thing to keep in mind, and this is true for every musical artist is, album sales is not their main source of revenue. Concerts, merchandise and endorsement deals are what brings the real money. In Korea I think, am not sure, that digital score gives them a decent amount of money, but not enough to surpass the other sources I mentioned. So 20k isn't much by itself but in Japan's market it means you have a decent enough fandom to start getting some deals your way. They are gonna need to gain more fans to be viable of course, but I don't think JYPE or Sony would change plans right now. There is a lot of potential for growth and even if my unfounded prediction comes true both companies would want to keep investing and growing the groups popularity. Just remember how Twice started, they were supposed to be 7, became 9, started slow, but eventually became the biggest Korean girl group of this era.
Also the increase in cost isn't that much given the potential gain. I don't know what they are gonna do for living arrangements because the shared living isn't a thing at all in Japan pop groups culture. My guess is JYP will want them to live together, especially since some of the girls aren't from Tokyo, which adds some expenditures but also takes away others. Getting a place that fits all the girls is gonna be expensive, but they can cut some transportation costs. Food is usually the biggest thing as far as living is concerned, but I'm sure the girls will continue to get some help from their parents as well as JYPE having a good revenue split with their artists. Sony will get their cut too, but I don't think JYPE would have signed a contract with them if the deal was too unfair for the girls. Travel and accommodation would increase, but you don't need that many more staff for a bigger group nor pay more for training. All these costs shouldn't amount to a significant enough number for you to consider making a smaller group in order to break even. The revenue they expect to gain is far greater than it, and if it weren't this project wouldn't even have happened to begin with.
The biggest issue is if they never grow from that 20k. But that is a worry for when they have about 3-4 releases. They can still continue promoting to the end of their contracts and they will still get to do some smaller venues and not lose money, but that isn't the return either company is expecting and I'd suspect they would decrease activities and not renew contracts. Right now everything is up in the air because we don't know when a vaccine will be developed and the pandemic can be controlled. Their concert is way far in the future, when hopefully everything is better, so that isn't the issue. The real problem is the economy is down, there is less money for investors and companies to throw around in marketing and less disposable income for people to spend on the girls. Korea and Japan weren't hit as hard as other parts of the world, but this isn't over yet and a lot can happen.
Again it's important to note I'm just spit-balling here. I have no idea if the sales numbers will end up like that. It's just my guess based on following years of the Japanese music scene, and the show. It's not based on actual research or any data crunching whatsoever.
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200611 Sukkiri!! - Team Icy performance
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Based on the fact that ICY is the only team where no member was criticized I'm gonna guess that they won and the tears from team Heartbeat are indeed from Momoka being eliminated. I think the top 5 will be Rima, Mayuka, Rio, Akari, and Mako (not sure what order though).
BPiperDude
StanThe final love ranking was done today. So here are the stats for the final week.
| Avg | 6/5 | 6/6 | 6/7 | 6/8 | 6/9 | 6/10 | |
| Miihi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mayuka | 2.33 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Yuna | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Ayaka | 3.83 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Maya | 5.33 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Mako | 5.67 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Rima | 6.83 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Rio | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Riku | 9.33 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Akari | 9.83 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Nina | 10.8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Momoka | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Riria | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
BPiperDude
StanFinal results for the entire love series. So some observations
Miihi started strong and ended strong making her the top rank person.
Ayaka started middle of the pack but then picked up a-lot at around 4th week.
Momoka unfortunately finished last overall and finished last each week except for the final week (thanks for that final week everyone)
Mayuka started weak but picked up tremendously starting in the middle of the shows at week 3-4
Nina started strong but fell off the table starting around week 4 and got worse every week after.
Everyone except Ayaka, Mako, Miihi, Nina, and Rio had at least one up-vote campaign for them. Riria had the biggest with a +11 followed by a -11 position change.
Mako looked like she may have had one down vote campaign -4 position followed by a +4 position followed by another -4 position.
Nina definitely had 2 downvote campaigns and possibly 4. -5 followed by a +4, a -3,-2,+5, a -1,-3+4, and a -6,+5.
Akari most likely had one too with a -7 then +3,+4
Miihi started strong and ended strong making her the top rank person.
Ayaka started middle of the pack but then picked up a-lot at around 4th week.
Momoka unfortunately finished last overall and finished last each week except for the final week
(thanks for that final week everyone)Mayuka started weak but picked up tremendously starting in the middle of the shows at week 3-4
Nina started strong but fell off the table starting around week 4 and got worse every week after.
Everyone except Ayaka, Mako, Miihi, Nina, and Rio had at least one up-vote campaign for them. Riria had the biggest with a +11 followed by a -11 position change.
Mako looked like she may have had one down vote campaign -4 position followed by a +4 position followed by another -4 position.
Nina definitely had 2 downvote campaigns and possibly 4. -5 followed by a +4, a -3,-2,+5, a -1,-3+4, and a -6,+5.
Akari most likely had one too with a -7 then +3,+4
| Avg | Wk1 | Wk2 | Wk3 | Wk4 | Wk5 | Wk6 | Wk7 | |
| Miihi | 2.56 | 1.43 | 1.71 | 4.29 | 3.14 | 2.57 | 3.57 | 1 |
| Ayaka | 3.4 | 5.43 | 4.86 | 5.43 | 1.43 | 1 | 1.86 | 3.83 |
| Rima | 3.79 | 3.86 | 3.14 | 2.57 | 2.43 | 3 | 5.14 | 6.83 |
| Mako | 4.75 | 3.43 | 3.14 | 5.29 | 5.57 | 4.29 | 6 | 5.67 |
| Mayuka | 5.65 | 9.29 | 10.4 | 6.29 | 4 | 5.43 | 1.29 | 2.33 |
| Nina | 6.13 | 2.71 | 2.86 | 2.86 | 6 | 8.29 | 10 | 10.8 |
| Maya | 6.81 | 7.43 | 6 | 7.29 | 8.71 | 5.57 | 7.14 | 5.33 |
| Yuna | 7.27 | 8.71 | 8.43 | 8.14 | 9 | 9.43 | 3.57 | 3 |
| Rio | 8.38 | 6.71 | 8.86 | 10 | 10.9 | 6.71 | 7.43 | 8 |
| Akari | 9.06 | 8.57 | 9.57 | 5.43 | 8.29 | 10.9 | 11 | 9.83 |
| Riku | 9.08 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9.43 | 8.86 | 9 | 9.33 |
| Riria | 11.6 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 8.86 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 13 |
| Momoka | 12.5 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 12 |
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Preview contains major spoilers:
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My thoughts based off all the new info from today
Regarding the ranking/winning team:
I think the ranking was pretty fair.
As a Rio stan I'm happy to see her get 2nd place and finally get appreciated for her improvements since she got snubbed from the last group challenge. I thought Rima would be higher on the ranking. I didn't expect Ayaka to be so low since her singing was more pleasant here than in Veryx3 for me. I don't agree with Feel Special team winning, I was not a fan of Miihi's singing I thought Icy team was better.
Momoka's elimination:
I knew it was coming but it still sucks. I think its expected since she hadn't had a good showing and the staff not liking her personality doesn't help.
Next weeks challenge:
The members in the groups seem unbalanced. Mako's team is with all the weaker singers and I can already see this challange hurting certain people but I'm hope I'm wrong.
Final episode:
I'm glad we got proper information on the last episode being June 26th and what's to come. Seeing them as a whole perform together is so cool. They're starting to look like a real group.
I think the ranking was pretty fair.
As a Rio stan I'm happy to see her get 2nd place and finally get appreciated for her improvements since she got snubbed from the last group challenge. I thought Rima would be higher on the ranking. I didn't expect Ayaka to be so low since her singing was more pleasant here than in Veryx3 for me. I don't agree with Feel Special team winning, I was not a fan of Miihi's singing I thought Icy team was better.
Momoka's elimination:
I knew it was coming but it still sucks. I think its expected since she hadn't had a good showing and the staff not liking her personality doesn't help.
Next weeks challenge:
The members in the groups seem unbalanced. Mako's team is with all the weaker singers and I can already see this challange hurting certain people but I'm hope I'm wrong.
Final episode:
I'm glad we got proper information on the last episode being June 26th and what's to come. Seeing them as a whole perform together is so cool. They're starting to look like a real group.
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Some DCinside Knetizens did some detective work on the Final Mission.
May 11th - Final Mission Shoot
Sana has the same final mission MC hair in a vlive
May 13th - Stray Kids MV Shoot
Visible Nizi members have the same hair as final mission. Some other members still around in orange jumpsuits?
May 20th - Leak of at least 9 members on the streets with different hair then the final mission.
Sana has the same final mission MC hair in a vlive
May 13th - Stray Kids MV Shoot
Visible Nizi members have the same hair as final mission. Some other members still around in orange jumpsuits?
May 20th - Leak of at least 9 members on the streets with different hair then the final mission.
cereus bunny
Lurkeromg that's my bad, I watched the two videos on YT Friday assuming they were full performance clips since I didn't see the Sukkiri mcs' faces reacting in the corner of the videos but I guess they were just ripped previews from Nizikake. I usually use YT videos to compare teams' individual performances especially when I don't want to click back and forth through times in the full episode uploads so I'll have to be more careful that I'm watching full clips next time. After seeing last week's episode, I'm glad there were a few more lines in the full performances.
After seeing this week's preview, I completely agree with you:
I was expecting Icy to win since the Icy members were the most well rounded from what was shown and JYP had nothing negative to say. No autotune on their vocals either. I was also surprised by the 1st place finish for Mako (but definitely not mad) and 12th place finish for Ayaka (still think it's deserved with her vocals). I generally disagree with half the rankings but this week's seemed fair to me and more accurately took into consideration people's improvements, especially for Mayuka, Akari, Yuna, and Riria. Icy was Rima's best singing yet though so I'd probably swap her 6th place with Maya's 5th. My favorites are Maya and Miihi, but this wasn't quite their week to shine.
Looking at the final teams in the last shot it looks like it will be...
Team 1: Nina, Riku, Rima, Maya, Mayuka, Miihi
vs.
Team 2: Riria, Yuna, Mako, Rio, Akari, Ayaka
Team 1's song seems more feminine and color pop and Team 2's song seems more girl crush. Very disappointed Mako didn't get the color pop song and Miihi didn't get the girl crush one. Team 1 likely has an advantage with their members, so I share your concerns for Riria, Yuna, and Akari. I know Mayuka will make the debut lineup so if JYP doesn't expand the group past 9 members then those 3 have very slim chances. I wonder what the probability of OT12 is? Or even like 10?
Also it's funny their group song will be Baby I'm a Star, really harkens back to I'm Gonna Be A Star times and sounds almost as annoying to me, just not my type of music so oh well. I have hope for the two original team songs.
Looking at the final teams in the last shot it looks like it will be...
Team 1: Nina, Riku, Rima, Maya, Mayuka, Miihi
vs.
Team 2: Riria, Yuna, Mako, Rio, Akari, Ayaka
Team 1's song seems more feminine and color pop and Team 2's song seems more girl crush. Very disappointed Mako didn't get the color pop song and Miihi didn't get the girl crush one. Team 1 likely has an advantage with their members, so I share your concerns for Riria, Yuna, and Akari. I know Mayuka will make the debut lineup so if JYP doesn't expand the group past 9 members then those 3 have very slim chances. I wonder what the probability of OT12 is? Or even like 10?
Also it's funny their group song will be Baby I'm a Star, really harkens back to I'm Gonna Be A Star times and sounds almost as annoying to me, just not my type of music so oh well. I have hope for the two original team songs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SRdxnPIjjA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbV092X5-IE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIiUKYFAHEo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydx2-PEyN3Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFLCkurITEI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKtpNk7x97k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7abxW-4zu3c
Nizikake teaser for episode 10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEkIIUzzQF8
Teaser with eng sub
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uHxTL0-JpU
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omg that's my bad, I watched the two videos on YT Friday assuming they were full performance clips since I didn't see the Sukkiri mcs' faces reacting in the corner of the videos but I guess they were just ripped previews from Nizikake. I usually use YT videos to compare teams' individual performances especially when I don't want to click back and forth through times in the full episode uploads so I'll have to be more careful that I'm watching full clips next time. After seeing last week's episode, I'm glad there were a few more lines in the full performances.
After seeing this week's preview, I completely agree with you:
I was expecting Icy to win since the Icy members were the most well rounded from what was shown and JYP had nothing negative to say. No autotune on their vocals either. I was also surprised by the 1st place finish for Mako (but definitely not mad) and 12th place finish for Ayaka (still think it's deserved with her vocals). I generally disagree with half the rankings but this week's seemed fair to me and more accurately took into consideration people's improvements, especially for Mayuka, Akari, Yuna, and Riria. Icy was Rima's best singing yet though so I'd probably swap her 6th place with Maya's 5th. My favorites are Maya and Miihi, but this wasn't quite their week to shine.
Looking at the final teams in the last shot it looks like it will be...
Team 1: Nina, Riku, Rima, Maya, Mayuka, Miihi
vs.
Team 2: Riria, Yuna, Mako, Rio, Akari, Ayaka
Team 1's song seems more feminine and color pop and Team 2's song seems more girl crush. Very disappointed Mako didn't get the color pop song and Miihi didn't get the girl crush one. Team 1 likely has an advantage with their members, so I share your concerns for Riria, Yuna, and Akari. I know Mayuka will make the debut lineup so if JYP doesn't expand the group past 9 members then those 3 have very slim chances. I wonder what the probability of OT12 is? Or even like 10?
Also it's funny their group song will be Baby I'm a Star, really harkens back to I'm Gonna Be A Star times and sounds almost as annoying to me, just not my type of music so oh well. I have hope for the two original team songs.
Riria, Yuna, Akari, and Mayuka are the ones that are the least likely to debut (I think Mayuka has a much better chance now.) So seeing them altogether (minus Mayuka) in one team for a final mission is just suspicious. I feel like this was a way to hinder them and be the reason for them to not debut. I’m sold on the group being 9 and Mayuka being that last spot tbh. Seeing the 9 members with a manager hanging out kinda further pushes me to that line up.