Dreamer95
StanWhy is everyone so nervous about everything these days? Honestly yall gotta deal with it, that's the situation. As I said you are just wasting your energy and stressing out for no reason. JYP is shit, Onces are too lazy to demand stuff. Perfect combination. The former won't change until the latter changes. This is JYP groups fate. If you think Twice content is lacking, check out Got7. In two years Twice situation will be the same.
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I can see it happen if only itzy or skz manage to get bigger than Twice, got7 is seriously done i think. They focus with individual promotions now.
But Twice is still JYPE main moneymaker. They wont make them flop or atleast wont ignore them if they still earn so muc money for them.
Lets hope the best for fanfare
If Twice can't surpass Candy Pop and Wake Me Up records I think is time to put WMJ totally in the ''trash label'' category too, sales being stagnant for 2 whole years with no sign of increase just show their incompetence.
We already have JYP doing everything they can to mess up Twice career and Republic doing nothing, at least they should be different.
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I'm seeing a lot of negative complaining in this thread these days and I have contributed a bit to that too but lets put things in perspective and at the same time put this negative talk on the shelf.
Today on VApp Dubu said something good-the year is only half over and they have a lot more planned for that. When you think on it TWICE have only really been active for 2 weeks in June and haven't done anything else in the way of real promotion or release for the entire 1st half of the year.
With that in mind it's easy to lose sight of things as they had a song 'slightly' under perform. I mean broke the wins record, posted their best ever YT views, best streams, some of their best ever charting in Japan, picked up 6 streaming cert making them the most decorated foreign artist on RIAJ in the category, destroyed the girl group album sales record, broke the Oricon 100k record for GG's, topped MelOn and Genie charts briefly, entered Billboard 200, etc, etc.
You know I wonder what nugu stans think when they see Once bitch about this stuff as if it's not legendary. We're talking a 5 year group still massively growing...that doesn't happen...like at all and we're negative? Like talk about needing a reality check.
I'm personally so excited for the rest of 2020 and to see what heights TWICE continues to reach.
Also on Fanfare I wouldn't expect record breaking sales-in Japan fan events really move product and we have 0 of them so don't be surprised if that has an impact. With the current world situation I'll be happy with 200-250 thousand overall on this release.
I mean that's with 560k and potentially a couple hundred thousand in Japan on FF in 5-6 weeks....who's doing that? I mean like ever? Answers no one and it's not even close.
Today on VApp Dubu said something good-the year is only half over and they have a lot more planned for that. When you think on it TWICE have only really been active for 2 weeks in June and haven't done anything else in the way of real promotion or release for the entire 1st half of the year.
With that in mind it's easy to lose sight of things as they had a song 'slightly' under perform. I mean broke the wins record, posted their best ever YT views, best streams, some of their best ever charting in Japan, picked up 6 streaming cert making them the most decorated foreign artist on RIAJ in the category, destroyed the girl group album sales record, broke the Oricon 100k record for GG's, topped MelOn and Genie charts briefly, entered Billboard 200, etc, etc.
You know I wonder what nugu stans think when they see Once bitch about this stuff as if it's not legendary. We're talking a 5 year group still massively growing...that doesn't happen...like at all and we're negative? Like talk about needing a reality check.
I'm personally so excited for the rest of 2020 and to see what heights TWICE continues to reach.
Also on Fanfare I wouldn't expect record breaking sales-in Japan fan events really move product and we have 0 of them so don't be surprised if that has an impact. With the current world situation I'll be happy with 200-250 thousand overall on this release.
I mean that's with 560k and potentially a couple hundred thousand in Japan on FF in 5-6 weeks....who's doing that? I mean like ever? Answers no one and it's not even close.
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I wish my faves were flopping like Twice
Dreamer95
StanOk, regarding this. There are two type of complaining crowds. The ones that started recently, after BP's comeback, because they want BP type success, aka bot streaming (and yeah, don't even @ me on this one, you don't achieve such numbers without bots, especially when you only get 4 million filtered spotify streams, and when you get millions of views from middle east where the word "Kpop" wi is met with confusion). This people should get their shit together and appreciate Twice's success.
The second crowd is the one which have been complaining a lot and rightfully so.
First of all, and this is the basic one. a group like Twice should not have an MV that looks cheaper than Loona's. It is absolutely unjustifiable.
Second, a group like Twice, when they perform on Major Award Shows, it shouldn't look like just a weekly music show stage, isn't that like obvious?
Third, it is not about the quantity of promotions, it is about quality. I made a thread about this on AKP some time ago, check it out and another one. What's all these messy content? FFS, do they not even have a proper photographer?
Summarazing all of this, Twice is the first top group whose content doesn't look top.
Yeah, we do have sales, however being outsold by Seventeen in the market we claim we are #1 is beyond my understanding. Yes, they are by group, so what? We are talking about Japanese market. Twice should be selling more than Seventeen in Japan and even more than BTS.
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It's difficult these days tho to compete with that. Would anyone in the world claim 17 or BTS are even 10% as famous or popular in Japan as many top domestic GG's? Compare 17 who have 0 chart success, 0 hits, garbage downloads, views and streams to mainstream popular local groups.
Seveteens last single sold over 500k. They literally have achieved nothing in the market yet these sales are possible. That's more than Nogizaka46 last album and about half as much as they sell a single and they do hadshakes and a shit ton of fan events to move those numbers and it's still less than BTS Lights. They are the 2nd most successful idol girl group in the last decade in Japan and can't outsell BTS.
The only 2 groups that sell high volume in Japan for girls consistently is N46 and AKB. To do so they hold a disgusting amount of fan events per year and they are almost exclusively hand shake events. In AKB's case they only move such numbers due to senbatsu anyway.
TWICE could get much higher numbers, but for a GG in Japan it's only possible if you do such events and I don't think ONCE or TWICE want any part of hand shake events.
It's very much a mans world, even in Japan, and they simply need 10% of the success or popularity of female groups to outsell them-it's a sad reality.
I mean in terms of foreign acts how many groups have actually performed better than TWICE in Japan? Kara and SNSD have a 600k and a 1m selling release...but the thing is about those. 1, both have multi releases to reach those numbers and 2, that was during a time when the JPN music market was almost 40% larger than it is currently.
Realistically what can WJM do to improve sales? The only thing is not hold them as close to Korean comebacks for 1 and than you get into the seedy stuff such as handshakes and what not.
As for the other stuff TWICE has and always will have a lot of content-it's how they are marketed and the image is great for TWICE too...no thank you to a more 'celebrity image'...for what? So edgy twt stans can give us a few more streams cos they are 'cooler' now...no thanks. I mean look at the other 'huge' group with that image...the audience is so large and vast they have to resort to money collection to even keep pace with our selling power.
Those type of stans have 0 value to me-I certainly wouldn't compromise TWICE girls next door image for them.
colorpop
StanWith NiziU destroying right now (just check their Japanese digitals, it's insane) I think ONCEs should be prepared for possible decline in Japan - you can see how slowly but surely TWICE japanese fandom is getting involved with NiziU stuff and, obviously, potential J-ONCEs are having one more 9 member gg to choose from, so I don't see a lot of room for growth on this market from now on. I think Fanfare will be able to show some numbers though.
And since we're at it: I still can't understand (and extremely salty to be frank) why JYPE decided to debut two new ggs (while direct TWICE competitors have none) marketed for TWICE core markets: Korea (ITZY) and NiziU (Japan). I mean, SEA region is growing rapidly, American promotions are also trendy nowadays among kpop fans and artists etc. Like, folks are so mad about BP, RV, SNSD, whatever, while real danger and competition for songs material, MV budgets, management and staff resources, CF contracts etc. is coming from within the agency and TWICE already have two of those competitors.
I wish ITZY luck, btw, I like their releases. Nizi debut was really bland.
And since we're at it: I still can't understand (and extremely salty to be frank) why JYPE decided to debut two new ggs (while direct TWICE competitors have none) marketed for TWICE core markets: Korea (ITZY) and NiziU (Japan). I mean, SEA region is growing rapidly, American promotions are also trendy nowadays among kpop fans and artists etc. Like, folks are so mad about BP, RV, SNSD, whatever, while real danger and competition for songs material, MV budgets, management and staff resources, CF contracts etc. is coming from within the agency and TWICE already have two of those competitors.
I wish ITZY luck, btw, I like their releases. Nizi debut was really bland.
Dreamer95
StanOne doesn't happen at the expense of the other. Honestly, bunch of girl next door image celebrities there. Having that image doesn't mean you literally need to be a girl next door. One thing is doing it as concept, another is doing it irl. I also wouldn't change it for streams, but it is not the streams we are talking about.
This is true, and lets not forget Izone, which isn't a JYP gg but still very much targeting Twice audience.
colorpop
StanI don't consider Izone as a threat, it's temporary group anyway. Good luck to them also.
NewUser
StanI have been negative in this thread but I will say that's only because I know people itt are receptive to discussing topics other fans don't want to. On Reddit you get downvoted to hell if you're not praising everything 24/7 ad AKP is just troll central so hard to have a discussion without people jumping in.
I said when Itzy got released and then when Nizi was announced that this was only ever going to be detrimental to Twice and cannibalise their own markets. None of the other groups in the gen even have one new GG in their company to compete with, yet alone two, with one literally focused on their biggest market.
The "issue" Twice have had is that they peaked in terms of song success in SK with their 1st comeback and Japan with their 2nd comeback. You've literally got the biggest kpop song in Japan and South Korea for the 3rd gen released barely a year after debut, that's hard to follow up.
When it come to Japan, I don't know much about the market, but you can quite clearly see it has been stagnant for a while for Twice. The "only" impressive aspect of Twice in Japan is touring at the moment, as it's the only thing growing, everything else has been purely fandom driven. Even hours at number one on Line are due to promotions asking to stream the song a certain number of times, as soon as the promotion was over Fanfare fell like 20 places?
Compare that to Nizi, who are from JYPE also and got a lot of their attention from Twice, yet they're already setting records that I can't imagine Twice have been near in years. Most of Twice's records now are cumulative. Fanfare got, 2m streams maybe first week? Just checked now and Nizi's single is still 4th, and as mentioned, they do have crossover with Twice fans and some are probably preferring to stream Nizi's instead as they are the "new model". But that's still an insane gap considering what you'd perceive to be Twice's popualrity in Japan (their Youtube views are also pretty crazy)
More physicals would come in Japan naturally with more hit songs. Events obviously do play a part but the Japanese fans are so keen on physicals that if you can grab them in with your music they will buy. I know Japanese people like casually going to concerts but I find it mad that Twice can now get a million applications for their tour in Japan yet still haven't got near Wake Me Up's sales two years later. I know you see it with TVXQ as well, who don't even sell 200k anymore in Japan yet tour in stadiums, but they are genuine veterans. Twice still consistently release music, go on shows and do everything.
I don't even think I'd be that negative if I thought the company was making the right choices and moves to optimise their success but for whatever reason people weren't receptive. But constantly not agreeing and worse, not even liking the title tracks anymore, only to then go see them not do as well as they could be, is just frustrating.
I said when Itzy got released and then when Nizi was announced that this was only ever going to be detrimental to Twice and cannibalise their own markets. None of the other groups in the gen even have one new GG in their company to compete with, yet alone two, with one literally focused on their biggest market.
The "issue" Twice have had is that they peaked in terms of song success in SK with their 1st comeback and Japan with their 2nd comeback. You've literally got the biggest kpop song in Japan and South Korea for the 3rd gen released barely a year after debut, that's hard to follow up.
When it come to Japan, I don't know much about the market, but you can quite clearly see it has been stagnant for a while for Twice. The "only" impressive aspect of Twice in Japan is touring at the moment, as it's the only thing growing, everything else has been purely fandom driven. Even hours at number one on Line are due to promotions asking to stream the song a certain number of times, as soon as the promotion was over Fanfare fell like 20 places?
Compare that to Nizi, who are from JYPE also and got a lot of their attention from Twice, yet they're already setting records that I can't imagine Twice have been near in years. Most of Twice's records now are cumulative. Fanfare got, 2m streams maybe first week? Just checked now and Nizi's single is still 4th, and as mentioned, they do have crossover with Twice fans and some are probably preferring to stream Nizi's instead as they are the "new model". But that's still an insane gap considering what you'd perceive to be Twice's popualrity in Japan (their Youtube views are also pretty crazy)
More physicals would come in Japan naturally with more hit songs. Events obviously do play a part but the Japanese fans are so keen on physicals that if you can grab them in with your music they will buy. I know Japanese people like casually going to concerts but I find it mad that Twice can now get a million applications for their tour in Japan yet still haven't got near Wake Me Up's sales two years later. I know you see it with TVXQ as well, who don't even sell 200k anymore in Japan yet tour in stadiums, but they are genuine veterans. Twice still consistently release music, go on shows and do everything.
I don't even think I'd be that negative if I thought the company was making the right choices and moves to optimise their success but for whatever reason people weren't receptive. But constantly not agreeing and worse, not even liking the title tracks anymore, only to then go see them not do as well as they could be, is just frustrating.
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Yes, but with all the lack of tact which permeates the marketing of Kpop the 'celebrity' image is typically marketed as a cold, distant and chic one. Limiting fan interaction on stuff like Vlive and removing that(no better way to put it) sort of naff factor TWICE have. I know this isn't for everyone and some see it as a turn off with the group being kind of goofy or lacking legitness or that premium feel.
The thing is tho, that factor is so intrinsically linked to what make so many of TWICE's fans so hardcore and loyal and why most of us love them. I really think Kpop marketing in all companies hasn't figured out how to balance those two sides yet for a reason. I don't want TWICE to lose that in the persuit of being seen as a more celeb or influencer style group.
@colorpop highly disagree with this point. I mean that's dangerously close to the sky is falling territory again. Yes NiziU are doing well and will continue to-but not at TWICE's expense. I see the crossover of fans-but that's purely on a dermal level. We see the same thing with ITZY and we had the same discussion with ITZY last year within the fandom where a lot of people thought much ONCE would likely defect-but when push came to shove ultimately it didn't result in anything more than casual side stanning. We didn't see a chunk or our sales disappear and suddenly inflate ITZY's.
The same will almost 100% happen with NiziU. ONCE will support in the way of watching an MV and streaming or w/e but I really don't see them at all abandoning a group they have invested in for 3-5 years just because something new and shiny has come along.
I mean the same was said about ITZY, Iz*One and now NiziU. We're talking about the 6th and 2nd biggest music markets in the world with many rivaling groups of similar concepts and music and history has shown time and time again the town very much is big enough for the both of them.
I mean can anyone of the top of their head name a time when a group has generally failed or fallen due to competition and not external factors? I can't.
I see too much doubt every time in a lot of ONCE....I'm sorry but it kind of gets to a point where I'm just pissed at hearing the non sense. Over the last 1-2 years we've heard...
1, If a member dates ONCE will leave...
Jihyo dates, nothing happens.
1(b), Well it wasn't a popular member.
Momo 1st in Japan, prob top 3 internationally and top 5 in Korea dates. Nothing happens.
2, When a new GG debuts TWICE getting ended...
IzOne, Itzy, etc, etc have all come along...nothing happened. Twice sales went up.
3, Twice are my happy pill-they are my escape and I need that bright energy.
Mina had a hiatus, Twice switched up the cute songs to more mature or serious topics...nothing happened.
Sorry for the rant-but every other fandom constantly questions how TWICE or ONCE will deal with competition, scandal, concept change, etc and it always comes back to the idea TWICE will take a 'hit'...but that has shown itself to not be the case at all time and time again.
Like I'm saying-where is the positive energy these days. Just had a successful ot9 comeback and broke records and now Dubu is telling Once we got a packed 2020 coming up and this place is like a funeral home.
EDIT: I also want to know why we are comparing TWICE Japan success to NiziU's when in reality one is a Jpop group heavily marketed and targeted on a major show with Sony, the biggest label in Japan, to a Kpop group? Twice are still a foreign group and that will always be a limiting factor for them and people can like it or not, that's a reality.
I mean I didn't see anyone talk about NiziU Korean sales and compared them in a similar way...because neither make any freaking sense.
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Dreamer95
StanYou was refering for groups targeting similar audience.
As to your point. It is mutually beneficial. NiziU getting more popular in Japan will benefit Twice as well.
Dreamer95
StanThe problem in Japan is the same problem that we have in Korea. No solo activities, only group. J Line, sorry for the choice of words, is carrying K line. I can't put it any other way. J members could easily get on Japanese TV and promote in a way it is impossible with the group, bring more fans and stuff. TV is still a pretty big deal in Japan despite decline in other countries. Being constantly on TV is what keeps Johnnys popular. If they only focused on music like Twice does, they would be much less successful. Twice does none, neither in Japan nor in Korea anymore.
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@Dreamer95 that's a separate issue I can get with. Better promo can always help and am for sure not against the idea or solo TV gigs since it's been a thing in Korea for TWICE since like forever...JYPE has 0 issue promoting individually...I mean we just saw it even now with Jihyo and Mina on that property show and Tzuyu and Namo on the dog one.
TV gigs in Japan would be great-just look at what TikTok and a segment on Nizi project did for Feel Special-it's charting about as good as it did on launch recently. So it's proof TWICE could grow way more with more targeted and creative promotion cycle. Certainly.
TV gigs in Japan would be great-just look at what TikTok and a segment on Nizi project did for Feel Special-it's charting about as good as it did on launch recently. So it's proof TWICE could grow way more with more targeted and creative promotion cycle. Certainly.
NewUser
StanI think Twice just need better content. Nearly all their content is for already fans of Twice, and the things they do outside of it are just random things all kpop groups do (the Youtube videos where you do tiktok dances and whatnot), it gives Twice a very insular feel. I've never been one to watch content like that so maybe I'm biased and it was never what got me into Twice.
The youtube documentary is the best example of this as it was just pointless in the end. Don't even think it was advertised outside of Twice's channel so what was even the point. It was just an OT9 love in to satiate fans that already love that stuff, but you already get that with all the other content they throw up anyway.
If you're a new fan you'd probably much rather stan a group stating out so you can be part of their journey rather than the one established. That's how I see it anyway so a new group is always more competition. It's not even massively about losing fans for me but more gaining.
You say this but what evidence is there to say the fandom has grown/stayed stagnant and not decreased in SK and Japan? Not due to any of the specific reasons you mention above as I think they are overstated as well, but in general? A lot of the increase for M&M is international (mainly China), same with a lot of the stats/records for the last few comebacks.
You think Korea and realise they got outvoted by Mamamoo fans for the Bonsang last year at MMA, which restricts voting to Korean fans. First time they did not get it in 3 years. Their b-sides don't debut high anymore. No way to prove it but I don't think the album sales have increased either.
With Japan you can just see that Twice don't sell as much as they did two years ago.
(playing devils advocate on this one)
Have to say it's hard to be positive when you're not enjoying the title track, you get no promotion of b-sides that you do enjoy, and then failing all that there's no fall back on the song doing well anyway and just not clicking with you.
Considering what could have been and how important I thought this comeback was I don't see it as successful annoyingly. Knowing the physical record will be broken in 2 months makes it a bit less impactful.
EDIT: I also want to know why we are comparing TWICE Japan success to NiziU's when in reality one is a Jpop group heavily marketed and targeted on a major show with Sony, the biggest label in Japan, to a Kpop group? Twice are still a foreign group and that will always be a limiting factor for them and people can like it or not, that's a reality.
I mean I didn't see anyone talk about NiziU Korean sales and compared them in a similar way...because neither make any freaking sense.
[/QUOTE]
Twice are a foreign group with 3 Japanese members. They attend year end shows in Japan rather than SK, already have some familiarity with the GP. That's a big gap.
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@NewUser I see some of those points and will give my insight for what it's worth lmao.
For growth it's hard always to measure where specifically we got it-but we can effectively narrow it down in a few ways.
Take out first Feel Special update vs M&M. One was just 368k and the other is 563k or there about. A massive jump. Now to do my best to show growth from core areas.
Feel Special had, if memory serves, roughly 35k. M&M had at the last count I saw 105+ thousand. So that's rounded to about 70k growth from China. Fair enough. That still leaves us roughly 125k album sales difference that didn't come from China.
Now in Japan it took FS all the way to March to hit 100k on Oricon-yet only 22 days for More & More which is sitting at around 115k and on track to outsell all recent albums-that's with a closer than ever Japan single. I'm sorry this is clear and obvious growth to me.
In Korea we really can't know. It's that simple-the country has no sales specific metric to pull from reliably. The best we have is the new Gaon retail chart which supposedly only counts domestic units sales. Which shows 184k for M&M over the last month. In the first month of Feel Special we had on 38k...now this chart isn't comprehensive enough to definitively show anything....but with such a difference in sales volume it's a good indicator.
SEA doesn't really make up much sales for a lot of groups and TWICE simply aren't big enough in LatAm, US or EU to make up the bulk of the 190++k difference in FS and M&M first updates....it's had to have massive contributions from Japan and Korea.
As for things like voting, etc well that's always hard to say-I mean assuming we use that a a reliable metric would that suggest MMM have a bigger domestic fandom than TWICE? It's also likely Once didn't waste time voting as we had already a booked concert on the same day as the MMA, which 2 years in a row TWICE hasn't attended so I don't think the fans care much about it.
I mean it's also worth pointing out that in 2020 TWICE sold out the KSPO dome for 2 nights and the tickets sold faster than they did in 2019...so that's something again to suggest growth.
Again I'm gonna say I can't believe we're here in a charts a sales thread when TWICE is posting their best ever Spotify, YT and just shattered the sales record and beat their best ever Oricon and we're still having issues and worries about growth or even fans leaving...
Will it happen one day? Yeah. But it's clearly the opposite right now and people need to remember to enjoy these moments, because when that does happen and TWICE start to fade we'll look back on this and think 'what the fuck were we talking about'
For growth it's hard always to measure where specifically we got it-but we can effectively narrow it down in a few ways.
Take out first Feel Special update vs M&M. One was just 368k and the other is 563k or there about. A massive jump. Now to do my best to show growth from core areas.
Feel Special had, if memory serves, roughly 35k. M&M had at the last count I saw 105+ thousand. So that's rounded to about 70k growth from China. Fair enough. That still leaves us roughly 125k album sales difference that didn't come from China.
Now in Japan it took FS all the way to March to hit 100k on Oricon-yet only 22 days for More & More which is sitting at around 115k and on track to outsell all recent albums-that's with a closer than ever Japan single. I'm sorry this is clear and obvious growth to me.
In Korea we really can't know. It's that simple-the country has no sales specific metric to pull from reliably. The best we have is the new Gaon retail chart which supposedly only counts domestic units sales. Which shows 184k for M&M over the last month. In the first month of Feel Special we had on 38k...now this chart isn't comprehensive enough to definitively show anything....but with such a difference in sales volume it's a good indicator.
SEA doesn't really make up much sales for a lot of groups and TWICE simply aren't big enough in LatAm, US or EU to make up the bulk of the 190++k difference in FS and M&M first updates....it's had to have massive contributions from Japan and Korea.
As for things like voting, etc well that's always hard to say-I mean assuming we use that a a reliable metric would that suggest MMM have a bigger domestic fandom than TWICE? It's also likely Once didn't waste time voting as we had already a booked concert on the same day as the MMA, which 2 years in a row TWICE hasn't attended so I don't think the fans care much about it.
I mean it's also worth pointing out that in 2020 TWICE sold out the KSPO dome for 2 nights and the tickets sold faster than they did in 2019...so that's something again to suggest growth.
Again I'm gonna say I can't believe we're here in a charts a sales thread when TWICE is posting their best ever Spotify, YT and just shattered the sales record and beat their best ever Oricon and we're still having issues and worries about growth or even fans leaving...
Will it happen one day? Yeah. But it's clearly the opposite right now and people need to remember to enjoy these moments, because when that does happen and TWICE start to fade we'll look back on this and think 'what the fuck were we talking about'
A what hour is the Oricon Fanfare 1st day update?
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